True Blue
But Lhr has taken the 9 steps you give above, where do they go from here?
They are now - well and truly - full.
At some point the three costs you state will become uneconomic, even at Lhr. It might take them a while to figure that out, due to ego, but it will happen. So what do they do then?
LHR ossifies - as it has already started to do.
I look at some of these carriers who moved quickly to Lhr and I ask myself, did they really want their Lgw service to succeed at all?
We shall never know but I'd say they wanted it to work as a pump primer to build routes until they could get to LHR.
At the end of the day, it is only when we look back in maybe 10/15 years time that we will see who was right. In the meantime, a great debate and a lot to play for for both airports and the country.
Which is why I have been saying for five years (in the threads related to this issue) that it is already too late.
The delays of the last 25 years have allowed:
- Regional fields to open up
- FRA/AMS/CDG to take the expansion
Then the unexpected:-
- The Middle East hubs have opened
- The LCCs took the feeders and regionals and underminded the Legacy cash flows
Consequently, LHR is 'walking dead'. Even if the 3rd opened today and the 4th in 15 years time- it's too late. We have lost our position in the European market and it cannot be got back. If we do get the 3rd (doubtful) it will only absorb a tiny amount of the current and future demand.
Gatwick is a side show because of the failure of all govts over the last 30 years and nothing can change it now. Even if we got LHR 3 and LGW 2, it's 'game over'.
Sorry but that's how it looks to me.