As part of meeting the funding criteria it has to be shown that the route is commercially viable after 3 years when the money runs out.
As part of the planning permission, Stobart submitted a report conducted by an independent analyst on the viability of the London and Dublin routes:
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APD’s ‘Likely’ forecast indicates that for a Southend route, beyond Year 9,
the load factor would be in excess of 58% and the ‘LIKELY’ Load Factor on
Dublin/Irish Sea Routes would be in excess of 58%, beyond Year 4.(para.
2.9).
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APD expect a daily service to Dublin (6 days per week) would generate
about 14,300 passengers in Year 2, significantly less than Aer Arran’s
break-even point of 58% seat utilisation for a single daily rotation, but ‘break
even’ would be achieved in Year 3 with 17,366 passengers. However,
after the initial establishment of the route, by Year 4, the airline could
consider the introduction of a double daily rotation to Dublin or a second
daily rotation to an alternative destination on the Island (e.g. Belfast), in
which case a ‘break even Load Factor’ of 58% on a double daily rotation
may be achievable by Year 7, with over 33,000 passengers.(para. 2.14).
So 9 years to reach break even on Southend, 3/4 on Dublin. So the Dublin route may qualify, but is it sustainable without having Southend too?
No study has ever been carried out for Belfast.