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Old 25th Feb 2015, 02:51
  #184 (permalink)  
Keg

Nunc est bibendum
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Sydney, Australia
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Haven't heard anything specific goodonyamate. Just nutting it through from e messaging point of view. They'll want the market to bask in the full glow of their success at 'turning it around' whilst still keeping up the mantra of 'more to do'. New aeroplanes tomorrow don't fit into that narrative. They will fit into the narrative later on in the year though.

Besides which, I suspect they've got Airbus sharpening their pencils on the A350. It's no secret that we have the 789s at a bargain basement price and so any counter offer from Airbus needs to be in that context.

I suspect that these will be expansion airframes- at least in part. The 789s are not a 744 replacement- though I suspect a number of them will eventually be A330 replacements given the oldest of those will be 15 or so once we get the first 787 deliver. Expect to see 787s on routes such as SYD-SFO and perhaps even MEL-SFO, BNE-LAX, PER- DBX- Europe (perhaps a couple of ports if it does BNE-DXB as well), maybe MEL-DFW if it has the legs.

Anyway, it's going to be a few months yet until we hear the news. The question is when the time comes whether they just announce the 789s or get ahead of the game and announce a 744 replacement for delivery (777X or A350-1000) from 2020 or thereabouts. Maybe that's where Airbus can get a win and avoid us taking 789s if they come up with the right deal for 70+ aeroplanes in the medium to long term.
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