Originally Posted by
EK77WNCL
I can see things not going too well for them at LCY... I mean in all honesty... Look at their routes and what would happen if they went:
AMS - Could easily be taken over by BA+BE frequency increases, BE could offer the KLM codeshares
ANR - VLM will probably be taking this over next year anyway
DRS - Its only UK route, is it important? Are loads good? If so BE could have a go, if not it would probably be lost.
DUB - BE and BA would have this in no time, even EIR might rock up in the city?
FLR - BACF already competes
NTE - Could EZY absorb these pax? Or BE might start up
ORY - An interesting one, Cityjet is the only operator on this route, IIRC this has always been a Cityjet route too, could VLM take it? Could BACF start CDG, BE take over and offer AF codeshares or could LCY see operation by HOP!?
RTM - BACF would have it covered
AVN/BES/BVE/DOL/TLN - Probably lost... Or could be moved to SEN
A few others could work from SEN, simply due to lower operating fees
On AMS, KLM Cityhopper would pick this up with E190s rather than leaving it to BA or BE. BE would not be allowed to codeshare with KLM as they already put the KL code on two routes (INV-AMS and SOU-AMS) and there is a hard rule negotiated with the KLM pilots' union prohibiting more than 2 codeshared routes with any external carrier.
ORY exists these days in order to occupy ORY slots on behalf of AF. The Eurostar has very effectively eliminated the main reason for this route to exist. LCY-CDG doesn't work: CDG is less attractive than ORY for point-to-point passengers to/from central Paris, and connecting passengers from LCY on AF/KLM can connect better through AMS.
In summary, I agree with you. I can't see any LCY route where the loss of Cityjet would cause more than a momentary blip.
(An earlier poster suggested KRK as a destination. This would be even crazier than Cityjet's recent Cambridge misadventure. The Avro RJ is so slow that essentally relies on the rotation of the earth to cover any sector longer than about 400nm, with correspondingly poor operating economics. Southend is not a logical base for Cityjet - without a sustainable network, nowhere is a logical base for them.)