Always good to see some actual evidence to support a view or proposition, its where some posters fall down .....
Heathrow - build and be damned, no rationale, no supportive thinking, kneejerk headline ! (FairDealFrank excluded).
That said it is one of the reasons I find part of the Davies submission so lame.
I cannot locate the original NATs article but here is a reference to it.
Four runway Heathrow would cut Gatwick by half | News | Wandsworth Council
If we assume an average 5% growth in pax over say 10 years based on a fag packet calculation, that would equate to;
75m per year X 5% =3.75 m lost pax
Timeline to build min..10 years but assume it opens in 2025, highly optimistic that's 37.5m, if its such a magnet for trade , will it not be full immediately assuming all the traffic lost in the intervening years then comes back ?
If you build 4 runways which is the ideal solution you then effectively cut down total SE movements by 10% who takes the hit for that one ?
AND not much discussion by Davies about how the M4, M25 and Paddington Express will deal with all these extra pax !
Its an utter mess, therefore how do we try and claw back some of that lost traffic. Do you throw in the towel to AMS CDG FRA or place at least some emphasis on a place like Manchester which has excellent road/rail links, is central for the UK, is within 1 hour of some of the UKs largest Cities and already has double the direct links to the UK regions.
Manchester will not be force fed with traffic , its nonsense to suggest this would happen, BUT given these parameters what would the Germans do ?
As a footnote whether Manchester will invest in facilities to match the aspirations of a few of us on here is very doubtful, you have a major investor with a 35% holding whose stated interest is Stansted, everytime a new long haul route is announced Ex Man (and there has been a few since they bought in) it must irk enormously !
Pretty sure its NOT what they signed up for !
It remains to be seen whether they will stick or twist !
Us Northerners put away our cloth caps and whippets many years ago , with Devo Manc, NorthernPowerhouse etc there is a major opportunity and momentum to influence at a national level, ManAirport whatever your thinking needs to be leading that charge.