Han 1st solo, I admire your optimism and purely for the sake of the people at Flybe - who have suffered enough turbulence over the last two years - I hope you're right. But, and there has to be a "but" after a statement like that, I can't see it. Some of the decisions being taken here are absolutely insane.
I'm hearing rumours of very light loads on a lot of the LCY flying and the hugely aggressive response of CityFlyer means that their future options are really limited. They've spent £25m buying five aircraft to fly routes from LCY which I don't think have a hope in hell of working.
The overall London strategy is a mess, with NQY still remaining at LGW (best place for it, and supported by a PSO) but then a mixed bag of operations at SEN, LCY and now STN. They just need to add Stapleford for complete cover of that side of London.
The schedules on NCL-STN are a complete joke and IOM-STN is just going to turn that market into a bloodbath. In their current forms, I do not believe either to be long-term propositions.
Then you get to Bournemouth. Twice-daily BOH-MAN, plus AMS, DUB etc? Yep, maybe. Linking BOH to the hub at Manchester (again) is a logical move....except for the fact that one of the two daily flights is scheduled at totally different times to the MAN evening hub banks so misses the connecting potential. The whole Bournemouth exercise looks like a cheap airport fees-chasing exercise and the inclusion of Deauville in the network to my mind confirms that.
Coupled to the recent launch and pulling off ABZ-EMA before it started, I am delighted that I am not a Flybe shareholder as I could take absolutely no confidence whatsoever in their route and commercial decisions. It looks like utter madness. If it turns out to be fantastic and I'm wrong, then I've missed out on the upside I could have had by buying shares, and good luck to those who do. I personally think you'll need some good luck - in shovelfuls.