Scotland
Well what do you know, much to the chagrin of our political masters in Westminster (née Whitehall), who I'm sure were rather hoping those North of the Border would vote NO and retreat back to highland dancing and listening to The Proclaimers, it appears those pesky Scots "might just vote for independence"
"Damned inconvenient if you ask me Smithers
So what of aviation policy and it's impact re Manchester !
Any thoughts ?
A couple come to mind.
The Andrew Neil programme two weeks back raised many interesting points, a few of our previous incompetent PMs have managed to lose things, usually Money, Goodwill, Political Support, but no PM has ever managed lose a whole nation before so the prospects for DC will according to most commentators be by all accounts somewhat bleak, it raises the spectre for the Conservatives of going into a UK general election with a lame duck Prime Minister, so would they plough on regardless or change course beforehand and if that happens will airport policy change ?
Surely in the event of a “yes” vote Cameron would have to go, and Clegg and the entire government. How could they continue after presiding over the break up of the country?
The Queen would then ask Miliband if he could form a government that can command a majority in the Commons, which he can’t, so it would be a dissolution and an immediate general election, and an early result from the Airports Commission, which “reports after the general election”, soon after.
That’s what should happen, but of course we all know that it wouldn’t as they’d cling on like grim death.
The nailed on expansion of LHR will presumably be in some doubt, although i'm not sure personally which front runners would be in the YES / NO camp !
Would Boris charge thru ?
No, it's by no means a given. In the above-mentioned scenario of what should happen, Boris would be the newly elected MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip, a constituency with a large contingent iof airport workers and more aircraft noise from NHT than LHR.
One would see Osborne and May “on manoeuvres” , and depending (1) on the composition of the Conservative party after the election, and (2) how much of an impact UKIP actually have, it could possibly be these two whose names go forward to the national Conservative party membership.
It will also provide food for thought for Davies and the Airport Commission, one of the main planks of their argument for expansion was UK connectivity, given LHR serves GLA EDI and ABZ , now parachuted into a new nation, would the perception change, doubters might start suggesting that we would be spending an awful lot of money investing in a runway for a country who must surely (although perhaps misguidedly), have aspirations to have more direct links of their own ?
The lack of domestic connectivity at LHR is more than just ABZ, EDI, GLA, who are actually well connected to LHR. It’s about destinations such as EXT, GCI, HUY, INV, IOM, JER, LDY, LPL, MME, NQY, and many many others. It’s also about the longhaul destinations that the domestic links would feed.
I'm not suggesting that economically the picture changes but it most certainly does from a political point of view !
"Sorry good folk of Sipson we are going to level your village, a real time benefit will be the ability to provide the good people of this new nation, Scotland, better access",
.......er really ?
So more importantly no runway, new policy, and no doubt a new White Paper, would Manchester actually get any airtime, I doubt it ?
Scotland staying or going has no impact on the case for LHR expansion.
APD - If its scrapped as seems likely would that sway passenger traffic flows North in terms of long haul ? Assuming of course a family of four on its way to Dubai are able to get past the Ed Miliband Light Infantry border guards who according to today's papers will be stationed at Gretna.
Is a 3 hour journey up the M6 worth a £400+ saving....to most quite probably !
It’s never been discussed, but the chances are that a separated Scotland would be in the common travel area.
Bilaterals - As I understand air agreement are between countries so flights to Scotland would presumably need unpicking and a new raft of air agreements drawn up, again would there be any implications for Manchester in terms of quota etc ?
Any other implications?
The chances are that a separated Scotland would have an open skies arrangement with the UK and with Ireland, and with most European countries until or unless it joined the EU.
Whichever way the vote goes interesting times.....
I'm off to Listen to The Proclaimers...
ho Hum.......Bathgate no more, Linwood no more, Methil no more, Irvine no more.
The Proclaimers, a band 20 years ahead of its time?