having witnessed separation process and having been in aviation since day one (of separation processes) I would say that some people underestimate situation.
Although ,many people around me will say Scotland and England should separate like Balkans '90 ,they deserved it
, I don't think it will happen. Too much money involved, to be wasted in civil war.
In that case transition will be smooth, but civil aviation jobs are too good, too important, and the most important -there are great possibilities for bribery ,corruption and big money- all that political elite wants. Story behind independence ,separation and similar is just cover for such ambition.