The bit that gets overlooked is the fact that the heading for the airway should have been about 106. The reason it's larger is because MH17 offset from the airway for a while and therefore had to fly a greater heading to reach TAMAK.
So, you're saying it was earlier heading more directly east? that would place it north of where it should be. Would that be enough deviation for them to scramble some fighters up to tell them to get back in their right lane? maybe not scramble, but if they already had some in the air?