OltonPete. and your post 3643.
Thanks for the work you did on Monarch's schedules for s2015 loaded for MAN & BHX. Have you by any chance an indication of the position for LTN & LGW, which might give a clearer picture as to whether cut-backs at this stage are across the board or at selective airports?
It should be said that this also reflects the situation with Jet2 at MAN with the schedules loaded so far showing frequency reductions on Palma, Faro and Murcia of several flights weekly, and small reductions on the likes of Budapest, Barcelona, Pisa and Nice. Reaction has included the optimistic view that this is what normally happens when schedules are first loaded and more flights will follow, and a more cautious view suggesting that Jet2 may simply wait to see how bookings develop before deciding whether to restore frequencies.
There are a number of apparent contradictions between noises from some airlines on the one hand and passenger figures so far reported for this summer. For example:
Some tour operators and airlines have referred to a 'soft' market for this summer, capacity issues, bookings below expectations, having to discount prices, lower yields etc. On the other hand, haven't EZY and RYR posted better results than expected for the latest quarter?
ACL's Start of Season Report for MAN indicated that Seats allocated for S2014 were 3.8% higher than at the start of s2013 and 5.2% higher than the end of s2013. Terminal pax at MAN increased by over 11% in April (inflated due to late Easter), 7.5% in May and 5.8% in June, which, assuming the ACL figures were up to date and correct, suggests that LFs overall have so far increased. However, the timing of when flights start and finish for the season may distort the figures. And of course within the mix, some airlines and destinations will have seen better LFs while others will not.
For British holiday markets going abroad, the pound is relatively strong against the Euro and is higher against the dollar which you might expect to give a boost to bookings. The price of oil has been fairly stable for some time which should help operators depending on their forward buying policy.
Given also the slowly improving economy, it is perhaps a little surprising that the mood in the industry seems somewhat subdued.
The hope of course is that Monarch and Jet2 will indeed increase their program in due course. Other than some more long haul flights, I'm not sure what the charter and schedule position is like for TCX, or for that matter TOM. Meanwhile, we wait to see what Easyjet and Ryanair have in store for us at MAN for next summer. There's certainly no shortage of competition on some routes!