On further thought, the diagram presented by OleOle shows a port quarter missile path.
If that is the case, could that diagram show the missile came from Government held terrain? As it purports to show a passing shot it suggests that the aircraft was the missile engagement zone for about 4-5 minutes.
Such a long time in the MEZ would thus suggest sufficient time to determine that the target was a fast high flyer and probably not a legitimate target. OTOH it could have been considered a high altitude reconnaissance flight returning to the east.
Now I am not saying that this proves anything one way or the other and that the diagram could conceivably be disinformation.