So the competing theories of the crime seem to be down to:
1) A bunch of mouth-breathing irregulars who've been lighting off anything they can get their hands on at anything moving did it
2) In a carefully orchestrated plot, the Ukranian Government shot down an aircraft which was deviating and had no reason to be where it was with the intention of blaming the whole thing on poor innocent Vlad and his uh Freedom Fighters. (* Woops, almost forgot, then somehow got an SA-11 launcher on a flatbed headed towards Russia in the early hours of the morning the next day to take pictures of for uh "plausible deniability")
Yeah, I dunno, hard to tell. Wheels within wheels!