Leon
I agree and your point "Until we get serviceable crystal balls, we WON'T know what's coming next...." is very well made. However, for this we need a balanced force and I don't think we have this. We have procured in recent years for another Afghanistan and let the rest of our capabilities fall or whither.
Exactly so. Hence my points:
We always procure to fight better the war we've just finished.
Which is where Pully's points about flexibility - that well known characteristic of Air Power - really count.
The balanced force would (will?) give that flexibility of capability that is required.
Sadly, the force must also be (or will always be) as lean as the Treasury dictate.
The conversation should always be - and never is - thus:
1. PM: We want you to be able to do "this".
2. CDS: Yessir - that will cost you £X Bn.
3. Treas: Can't have that, can only have £X - Y Bn
4. CDS: Then we can only do "this" minus "that"
5. GOTO 1