Everybody want experience pilots but they do not want to pay for it
Therein lies the rub. To kick start the rapid expansion seen over the past 20 years, mostly via the LoCo's, the seat price had to be cut to the bone. RYR even had 'loss-leaders' for €1. People became used to it. The same with cheap food and cheap clothing. Eventually enough people became as used to flying away for a couple of days as they were driving to the coast or other relaxation spots. The businesses had to grow to survive. Every country wanted its LoCo. What could not happen is for the price to rise to a more realistic level otherwise the pax would stay at home. It's a fine line. If you believe MOL, which I didn't, he trumpeted that even a €2-5 departure tax in NL or DE would be enough to kill his pax figures. (the fact that he added much more to his own extras, and it had no effect tells the truth). What has also happened is that the majors have reduced their prices and now are very competitive with LoCo's, when you pay the bottom line.
Thus there is no way salaries can rise to an honest pre-LoCo level. Even just taking into account inflation over the past 15 years, never mind the increase in productivity, the package has been driven down significantly: no pay rises, no pension, own training costs, own uniform costs, no work no pay = no sick pay & no holiday pay = no guaranteed income. To restore even these basic elements of a respectable salary package would see quite a price hike; to include the lost inflation as well would deter pax from their leisure breaks.
It could be that the shortage of pilots will not cause just cancellations, but also closures. Then the number of seats available will reduce to those who can pay the higher prices. You see higher prices already on certain routes where there is a monopoly. The carrier teases the market for maximum yield; i.e. the maximum price they can charge without putting off all but the essential pax. With only one carrier they can do this. If some carriers fail, due lack of pilots, then the same effect will come into play. It will take quite a while, but it could happen.
How are SWA, the daddy of it all, doing? They are reputed to have ace T's & C's. What about their prices over the past few years? Are they still the datum? If so, how? Less greed or better run?