Interesting Take on Pilot Demand - Flight international Comment
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Interesting Take on Pilot Demand - Flight international Comment
According to 27th May edition, some airlines are having to cut back schedules due to a lack of pilots. Mentions Ryan, American regionals and JAL as suffering from problems.
It goes into whether the 15 year predicted shortfall in pilots is actually starting to happen; apparently all efficiencies of scale have now been realized, the effects of 9.11, extensions in pilot maximum woking age are now smoothed out.
Thoughts? Considering jumping ship from current employer who are currently bricking it as a result of briefed expected outflows to greener grass at the same time as requiring expansion of numbers.
It goes into whether the 15 year predicted shortfall in pilots is actually starting to happen; apparently all efficiencies of scale have now been realized, the effects of 9.11, extensions in pilot maximum woking age are now smoothed out.
Thoughts? Considering jumping ship from current employer who are currently bricking it as a result of briefed expected outflows to greener grass at the same time as requiring expansion of numbers.
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Still not convinced..
An endless supply of cadets in Europe. Many of them will never get in. I used to instruct and I know about which ones have gotten through the door and which ones are still standing out in the cold. The second group is still high.
No surprise Ryanair and American regionals are mentioned on that list.
An endless supply of cadets in Europe. Many of them will never get in. I used to instruct and I know about which ones have gotten through the door and which ones are still standing out in the cold. The second group is still high.
No surprise Ryanair and American regionals are mentioned on that list.
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Not surprised they have a "lack" of pilots in the States, it's due to the 1500 hrs minimal requirement, and the crappy pay the American regionals offer. There's no lack of pilots, just a lack of 1500+ hrs pilots willing to work on their terms.
All in my humble opinion of course.
All in my humble opinion of course.
Last edited by Nikonair; 28th May 2014 at 16:31.
Champagne anyone...?
What he said. The FAA 1500hr Rule has restricted the number of suitably qualified pilots available in the States.
Until similar restrictions are placed on European airlines I very much doubt you'll see the much-vaunted "shortage" materialise around these parts..
Until similar restrictions are placed on European airlines I very much doubt you'll see the much-vaunted "shortage" materialise around these parts..
Directed by Congress, the Airline Safety and FAA Extension Act of 2010 called for increased minimum requirements for airline first officers. The new rule mandates that airline first officers hold an air transport pilot (ATP) certificate or the new “restricted ATP.”
An ATP certificate requires, among many other qualifications, that the pilot be at least 23 years old and have logged at least 1,500 hours of flight time.
The “restricted ATP” requires pilots to be at least 21 years old with
750 flight hours if they are military-trained and qualified,
1,000 flight hours if trained in a four-year college or university-accredited aviation training program leading to a bachelor’s degree, or
1,250 flight hours if trained in a two-year college aviation program leading to an associate’s degree.
An ATP certificate requires, among many other qualifications, that the pilot be at least 23 years old and have logged at least 1,500 hours of flight time.
The “restricted ATP” requires pilots to be at least 21 years old with
750 flight hours if they are military-trained and qualified,
1,000 flight hours if trained in a four-year college or university-accredited aviation training program leading to a bachelor’s degree, or
1,250 flight hours if trained in a two-year college aviation program leading to an associate’s degree.
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How does anybody wants to sell his experience as a pilot, if he does not have it?
In my humble opinion, an airliner's front seat is not the place to learn to fly in.
In my humble opinion, an airliner's front seat is not the place to learn to fly in.
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The airlines experiencing shortages are pretty much all rubbish companies to work for with base level pay, maximum hours and awful basing. Whenever other airlines recruit, their workforce will leave like a heard of wildebeast. Leaving them to recruit anything with a pulse and licence.
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In my opinion,the US will see MPL in the next several years. The congress under extreme pressure from Airlines and even manufacturers will bypass the 1500 hour rule and allow alternative licensing with greatly reduced time.
However that will be significant training by air-carriers as sponsors and extensive simulator training in Air carrier operations. It's not a good thing because they will pass this under duress and in a rush ad there won't be the kind of attention to detail that this type of change requires.
The industry simply does not have the numbers of people interested in flying as a career. They have seen every one go bankrupt, here in the US, and pilots lose pensions, take huge pay-cuts and the industry simply has lost its luster.
Being a pilot is now seen as just another job, and it is a job where you are under constant scrutiny, medical testing, drug testing, competence testing, (check rides and training) and no support from you company if you lose your medical or have an incident.
It is an economic fact that price is what you pay and quality is what you get. The quality of the air travel experience has declined for most people. The price has declined and correspondingly compensation and terms of employment have declined. The market signals being sent are that you will get lower quality candidates or competition for highly qualified candidates will increase.
Airlines hate the thought of getting into a compensation war for qualified pilots. In the US they will change licensing methods rather than significantly raise the compensation level to attract the kind of people they want.
However that will be significant training by air-carriers as sponsors and extensive simulator training in Air carrier operations. It's not a good thing because they will pass this under duress and in a rush ad there won't be the kind of attention to detail that this type of change requires.
The industry simply does not have the numbers of people interested in flying as a career. They have seen every one go bankrupt, here in the US, and pilots lose pensions, take huge pay-cuts and the industry simply has lost its luster.
Being a pilot is now seen as just another job, and it is a job where you are under constant scrutiny, medical testing, drug testing, competence testing, (check rides and training) and no support from you company if you lose your medical or have an incident.
It is an economic fact that price is what you pay and quality is what you get. The quality of the air travel experience has declined for most people. The price has declined and correspondingly compensation and terms of employment have declined. The market signals being sent are that you will get lower quality candidates or competition for highly qualified candidates will increase.
Airlines hate the thought of getting into a compensation war for qualified pilots. In the US they will change licensing methods rather than significantly raise the compensation level to attract the kind of people they want.
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Just a personal opinion but before the FAA agree to reducing the 23 year old/1500hour minimum it will have to be sold to the insurance market and therein may lay a large obstacle. Money will always talk but it will be a question of how much and maybe the price will be too much.
P.S. Looks as though QANTAS are about to drop up to 300 experienced pilots onto the job market.
P.S. Looks as though QANTAS are about to drop up to 300 experienced pilots onto the job market.
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I'll believe it when I see "Pilot" on the immigration skills shortage list for countries such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the USA. Though I'd love to see it, it'll never happen.
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@parabellum: the insurance companies won't even put up a fight, they do insure enough carriers that have used cadets for the last 60+ years with quite good results. And new carriers worldwide are joining the MPL program every few months, simply because in many developing areas in aviation there is already a very real shortage, just not in those older economies like europe or the us.
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Ryanair braucht für den Sommer mehr Flugzeuge - airliners.de
Ryanair wetleasing this summer Pilot shortage here?
Ryanair wetleasing this summer Pilot shortage here?
I'm with you captbob, there never has been a "pilot shortage" and never will be.
I'll grant, there is a lack of 22 year old 20,000+ houred B787 Training Skippers, but is something else entirely....
I'll grant, there is a lack of 22 year old 20,000+ houred B787 Training Skippers, but is something else entirely....
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As a now famous Japanese airline has proved - they cancelled 154 flights over June 2014 due to...................lack of pilots and are feverishly trying to find more.
They are not the only ones who are desperate - at this time.
the hot jockeys leaving the West to Go East means the West are also in need of F/Os who will become Captains - otherwise all of our crews over here will be with the airlines over in the Far East.
There is a demand and there are not enough pilots to fulfil the demand.
They are not the only ones who are desperate - at this time.
the hot jockeys leaving the West to Go East means the West are also in need of F/Os who will become Captains - otherwise all of our crews over here will be with the airlines over in the Far East.
There is a demand and there are not enough pilots to fulfil the demand.
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@Natstrackalpha
Utter nonsense. There is a small demand in a few airlines that have basically put themselves in this position due to piss poor planning.
There are thousands and thousands of unemployed pilots worldwide that would love an opportunity. There are thousands of pilots out there that are employed and love the opportunity.
What there isn't is plenty of pilots willing to work for little or less reward in a not so familiar environment and in some circumstances for a not so friendly employer....or should I say "customer" as they will be contractors after all.
Before anyone says there are not enough "qualified" pilots, that is utter nonsense too. There are plenty of pilots out there with thousands of hours, most likely on type with legacy carriers which could move into such positions....but why would they....the carrot isn't big enough by far.
The US has again plenty of pilots all with over 1500 hours and ready to move to the regionals so the US airline argument is false too. By saying they are not good pilots is a sign that training needs to be changed not the current 1500 hour rule, however I suspect it is simply a ploy to keep T's & C's down.
The only shortage of crew in any airline in todays climate when there are more unemployed pilots than there has ever been (certainly in Europe anyway) is purely down to their own incompetence, period.
There is a demand and there are not enough pilots to fulfil the demand.
There are thousands and thousands of unemployed pilots worldwide that would love an opportunity. There are thousands of pilots out there that are employed and love the opportunity.
What there isn't is plenty of pilots willing to work for little or less reward in a not so familiar environment and in some circumstances for a not so friendly employer....or should I say "customer" as they will be contractors after all.
Before anyone says there are not enough "qualified" pilots, that is utter nonsense too. There are plenty of pilots out there with thousands of hours, most likely on type with legacy carriers which could move into such positions....but why would they....the carrot isn't big enough by far.
The US has again plenty of pilots all with over 1500 hours and ready to move to the regionals so the US airline argument is false too. By saying they are not good pilots is a sign that training needs to be changed not the current 1500 hour rule, however I suspect it is simply a ploy to keep T's & C's down.
The only shortage of crew in any airline in todays climate when there are more unemployed pilots than there has ever been (certainly in Europe anyway) is purely down to their own incompetence, period.
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I'm with you captbob, there never has been a "pilot shortage" and never will be.
One thing perhaps is being missed in this calculation. Not so many years ago it was common for an airline pilot to retire on a good pension at 55-ish. In the last 80's a few airlines extended this to 60; all controlled by their pension schemes. (There are still some legacy carriers with a pension age of 55-58ish. Good luck to the lucky few.) Then the vast majority of airlines extended to 60 and no pension scheme. Then, under EU rules, the age has been extended to 65, and still often no pension scheme. Thus old farts are finding it very necessary to stick it out until national pension kicks in. There has been an expansion of the industry with LoCo's and the major's all expanding as the population pollution of the travelling public has ever increased. If the pension age was reversed to 60, then do the calculations about pilot shortage. Wow; what a shock. The expansion we've seen might not ever have been able to happen. Discuss.
It's a chicken and egg. If supply meets demand, or is just a bit in surplus, that explains why T's & C's have declined. One of the root causes of that has been the increase in pension age, IMHO. It's not reversible. Live with it, but fight the declines.
One thing perhaps is being missed in this calculation. Not so many years ago it was common for an airline pilot to retire on a good pension at 55-ish. In the last 80's a few airlines extended this to 60; all controlled by their pension schemes. (There are still some legacy carriers with a pension age of 55-58ish. Good luck to the lucky few.) Then the vast majority of airlines extended to 60 and no pension scheme. Then, under EU rules, the age has been extended to 65, and still often no pension scheme. Thus old farts are finding it very necessary to stick it out until national pension kicks in. There has been an expansion of the industry with LoCo's and the major's all expanding as the population pollution of the travelling public has ever increased. If the pension age was reversed to 60, then do the calculations about pilot shortage. Wow; what a shock. The expansion we've seen might not ever have been able to happen. Discuss.
It's a chicken and egg. If supply meets demand, or is just a bit in surplus, that explains why T's & C's have declined. One of the root causes of that has been the increase in pension age, IMHO. It's not reversible. Live with it, but fight the declines.
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Lack of pilots? Firstly we are really talking about the USA. There, airlines aren't paying enough to recruit the pilots they need. Own goal, no sympathy. The Japanese, if there is a shortage, haven't done their sums. My understanding of this market is that is so restrictive that you have to start recruiting ab-initios now for your airline in five years time. And if you have to cancel flights, has an alternative method of reducing demand been considered? How about putting up the price and paying pilots more? But in Europe, we still have a glut of flying lemmings. These doe eyed dreamers will pay to work, they'll undercut anyone and be out of a job just as soon as they approach a reasonable level of experience. Not until the supply of hopeless optimists dries up will there ever be a shortage of (inexperienced) pilots.