In my opinion the future is much more grim for AJ than it is for his mainline pilots.
The problem AJ has are the mainline pilots are just so damn expensive to be made redundant (compulsory redundancy that is)
Even with the offer of a fast command and a potential lengthy career at JQ, the take up rate has been relatively low. Of the pilots that transferred to JQ, most so far have returned.
And the reason for the larger influx of MOU pilots post Oct 2011 was career contingency planning after AJ woke up & decided to shutdown the airline.
Mainline are creating an environment (intentionally) of uncertainty in the hope that another 105 pilots don't return from LOA over the next 12 months.
AJ, tell us why there are parked aircraft in Japan? What's that, you can't get pilots at the pay rate on offer! More fool you.
AJ's little experiment of dangling a carrot to the mainline group failed miserably.
LS even had to throw money at QF pilots to get them to transfer to JQ in the form of a company paid endorsement.
Fellas. The whole scenario now playing out in QF mainline is a manufactured event.
Anyone who believes the dribble that the current surplus is due to the retirement of aircraft has been played.
Yes, the aircraft are retiring. But they are going cause of a lack of investment in the mainline international product and the replacement of mainline services domestically by JQ.
I don't have the figures immediately available. But the forecast growth in the Asia Pacific over the next 20 years is huge. Pilots have got to fly these aircraft. And if the Qantas Group wants to participate in this growth. It's going to need pilots.
AJ needs pilots, it's just the amount he wants to pay them is what he's trying to engineer down to the lowest amount he can.
Make no mistake, he needs experienced pilots but he just doesn't want to pay them much.
And ouch, those zero to hero cadet schemes can keep the right hand seat warm for a while. But what about the Command time for the transfer to the left hand seat.
Sit on your hands fellas. AJ's in the hot seat. He's been saying he's going to turn the business around by 2016. Be patient and watch him fail at his current strategy of replacing premium services with low yielding fares.
As a sign of the confidence in AJ's strategy, the likes of Etihad, AIRNZ & Singapore airlines have slowly been continuing to increase their equity in Virgin.
The closer to 2016 it is, the more AJ will panic about the turnaround and as we all know. His tenure and the current strategy has failed miserably. Watch the current strategy implode.
What's Alan going to do? Shutdown mainline and gift what's left to Virgin domestically and every other premium international airline. Cause I'm sure as heck convinced no premium passenger is going to vote with their feet and fly JQ.
AJ wants to pay me less cause he's pulled out of profitable routes to Frankfurt, failed to reinvest in mainline with fuel efficient aircraft and followed the path of self destruction. Sorry Alan, I'm not taking a pay cut to pay for your parked aircraft in Japan & Europe.
AJ, I say I'll see your hand and raise you two fold. Cause I'll walk into another flying job next week, whereas the shareholders will kick your ar$3 out of your CEO job if you fail to deliver on your 4 pillar strategy by 2016.
Rant over.
MC.