I'm not so sure that the ATSB has the ability to properly investigate this one, based on their record over the past 5 years.
Interesting as the below accident just happened to be on TV tonight, great timing. The show was a bit overdone in its dramatisation in some parts but the basics of this accident was there. A more analytical and succinct account obviously can be found within the NTSB report. I read this some years ago, and it is worth a look for those of you who are interested in this field;
http://www.ntsb.gov/doclib/reports/2004/AAR0404.pdf
Yeah I know, different a/c type in the attached report, different circumstances, different root cause and contributing factors, but in the AA accident the F/O's inputs sealed their fate and caused the destruction of a perfectly good aircraft. And it took some NASA scientists to do the calculations on what level of wake turbulence it would have taken to bring the a/c down. Even a very capable NTSB needed some additional help, so god help us if the VARA incident is too complex because the ATSB will fold like a cheap deck of cards.
It's also too early to know what the VARA investigation will produce, however I am pretty sure that crew input, training and culture will be right under the microscope. I find it difficult to believe that some form of turbulence
alone could have produced the level of airframe damage we are being lead to believe. That's not to say that turbulence wasn't a factor, I just doubt that it was the
only factor. It takes a hell of a lot of force to twist a frame.
The bigger issue at stake here is when did the aircraft actually get damaged? When was the damage noticed and how many sectors were flown before it was discovered? There are some very unsettling issues to be examined in this incident.