Conductor,
I think that might be wishful thinking. The FWC is there to provide, amongst other things:
a) providing workplace relations laws that are fair to working Australians, are flexible for businesses, promote productivity and economic growth for Australia’s future economic prosperity and take into account Australia’s international labour obligations;
The FWC is meant to be impartial, and trying to guess future outcomes from previous determinations is not easy.
I truly doubt the Commission ruled the way they did previously to 'show Joyce up' or send a message. They examined the facts and ruled accordingly.
WRT the LOFO section of the award, it would be very difficult to argue that the immense costs of retraining are in the companies best interests, rather than targeted CR. The FWC would be looking at the viability of retraining vs CR and rule on that aspect accordingly.
Those claiming that the LOFO will definitely be adhered to, are, in my opinion, engaging in wishful thinking.
The Commission might not like Joyce (or they might) but that is irrelevant, they will endeavour to be as impartial as possible.
If Qantas can successfully claim that the retaining costs will be prohibitively expensive and possibly cause the demise of LH, then it would be in the best interest of the company AND employees to target CR.