Ringwayman
If those pearls of wisdom are being told to various airlines regarding the regional UK market by analysts, is it any wonder why so many are reluctant to venture a service.
This is so true, the fixation with LHR is beyond belief matched only by a total absence of creativity in the Davies Commission review.
It's a view shared in the media as again these so called analysts keep spouting on about LHR though various sympathetic outlets, The Telegraph and The Spectator leading the charge.
At least previous Aviation Policy Reviews included Manchester albeit maybe scraping in on the last page, but at least we managed a mention. This time it was almost as if they were afraid to mention us in case it provided the oxygen of publicity.
I agree that a 3rw is required, somehow it will now have to be shoehorned into LHR, lords knows how they will do it re infrastructure , but that is another argument.
My angle is more about safety and the need to alleviate the substantial holding over London, BUT if another runway is built it throws up many issues that Davies simply failed or chose not to address.
It increases slots by over 50%, there seems an automatic presumption that they will be filled ?
With a such a deluge the value will drop like a stone, a major issue for LHR based airlines where these slots appear on the balance sheet.
Whilst some observers suggest a phased distribution over a number of years to address this can you really see HAL spending billions and having a runway running half empty , not a chance ?
It immediately negates the need for the existence of LGW, I suspect HAL will almost certainly go after this business aggressively, but that is simply moving pieces on a chess board.
The Davies commission remit was to look at UK Airport Policy but seemingly this simply meant the ability of regional airports to connect at LHR isolating a review of other options as if they were of little consequence or simply didn't exist.
Why were our MPs so subservient in not challenging this at the beginning ?
Again Manchester was lumped in with the also rans !
As LAX indicated these analysts do not seem to have a clue what goes on North of Watford.
Will the slots be filled ? The main remit of the commission seemed to be enhancing domestic connectivity and servicing new routes/destinations to use the favourite term "keep us competitive"!
I would contest a few more long hauls ex Manchester unburdened by bilateral constraints would do the same would it not OR does that not count ?
With the combination of Emirates, ETIHAD and Qatar dominating airports in the UK (and now Dublin) it could be argued that in terms of domestic connectivity the Commission are reviewing something long since passed !
Of course there will be some tinkering but will there actually be the massive expansion that everyone assumes will happen ?
Many routes seem to have peaked already in terms of frequency so is building a 3rw using a sledge hammer to crack a nut ?
Look at domestic points not served, the commission implied these will suddenly reappear, er I doubt it !
Anyone looking at the Newquay thread will be aware that there is simply no desire from the main operator BA to reconnect with all domestic points that have been slashed previously and yet according to the Commission and so called analysts this remained one of the main arguments for expansion ! If anything domestic connectivity is falling.
In terms of destinations Manchester actually has better connectivity (18) than LHR (12) or LGW (12) so if that was a plank of the argument why was it ignored ?
The list of unnerved routes that could be met by a 3rw is on the HAL website, I won't list them here but they hardly jump out, again I hardly think there is the appetite from BA to address these.
None of these issues were raised by Davies nor challenged by MAG who sadly seemed bedazzled by events in Essex.