Originally Posted by
fjencl
Based on the "minimum 30 seats", I think it's Loganair's to lose. They can base a Saab 340 or Dornier at DND with no difficulty. Aer Arann would have to operate an ATR42 with higher operating costs, and I don't think that discounted charges at SEN would offset those higher costs, unless Stobart simply wants to buy the business.
Eastern's Jetstreams are 29 seats so are excluded - they would need to move up to jets (too expensive) or 50-seat Saab 2000s (ditto). Bmi regional's jets are too expensive.
There's a chance that one or more random European regional operators may pitch in a bid too, as new PSOs don't come up that often and they represent good (and above all certain) money. But I stick with Loganair as the most likely by far.
Now one interesting aspect is that every carrier is likely to have to base an aircraft in DND, because that's where the early-morning demand originates. (I haven't seen the tender so don't know if this is explicitly stated). For a twice-daily service with a morning round-trip and an evening round-trip, that means the aircraft is sitting around in the middle of the day - but the PSO (i.e. the taxpayer) will usually be covering the aircraft capital costs and the crew costs, so the airline would be able to operate an extra route in the middle of the day at a very low cost base (basically just needs to pay for fuel and nav/landing charges and a bit more for profit). So perhaps this PSO could be the catalyst for a further (indirectly subsidised) route from DND?