What % of the ME3 are ongoing to Hong Kong vs BA/CX over LHR?
It baffles me that Cathay aren't back with an A340-300, they've still got them and they're paid for by now. Do you mean actual politics or airline / alliance politics?
While I haven't got the figures to hand, there were studies done which showed on average, 12-16 J class seats and 164 Y class seats on average per day each way could be filled on MAN-HKG alone, and about 11-13 J and 126 Y per day each way for Beijing. Shanghai was not studied in depth. This was accounting for the fact there are many other routing opportunities via various hubs.
Im convinced that something is at play, as I cannot fathom why such smaller markets seem to be easily gaining China flights but MAN struggles. Even Dublin was hotly tipped to get a direct Air China flight, a market no bigger than 1/5 the size of MAN at this present time!