An article in “Flying” magazine’s March 2003 issue was probably read by a CNN staffer as it supports those bleak numbers, furloughed pilots not being recalled until 5-7 years from now, and no new real new-hires until 7-10 years. I’m not sure if these numbers take into account a major airline liquidating.
It does look bleak, but we have been there before with recessions and oil shortages. However, the thing to watch for is structural change in the industry. Many large companies are restricting business travel, no more full fare business tickets, the stuff that UAL and the others relied on to feed their hub and spoke machine. A big bailout by the government may not happen, a congressman was on the news the other day stated that he can’t vote for one when pilots are earning $300,000 a year and working 50 hours a month while the people in his district are making $8-11 an hour. It always seems pilots are the problem.
The article in the magazine was trying to push regional jets as the next best thing, however it seems that $100k is basically tops for that job. A middle manager or techie type with 10-15 years experience can make that money or more without having to spend $40-50k learning the skills then flight instructing at $20 and hour for years.
The scary part about these major bankruptcies is if liquidations happen a lot qualified pilots will be on the market and there could be a cascading effect where regional feeders have no one to feed and they end up liquidating.
No one has a crystal ball that is 100% accurate, usually the experts are wrong. Other than the prior period of 8 years when airlines expanded and hired it seems like it was always a boom or bust for airline hiring. Train in the slow times and be positioned when business picks up. If a major airlines liquidates there will be more cheap airplanes available leading to more startup airlines copying the SW business model.