War=5 to 7 years of struggle
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War=5 to 7 years of struggle
just watched CNN few days ago, if there is a war, expect to wait 5 to 7 years before airlines catch back their furloughed pilots.
When I mean pilots, I means guys with a real airline experience under their belt.No guys with frozen "ATP" (yes, i write ATP between " '', cuz no frozen ATP exists in the ICAO system).
Bankrupted airlines? yes, problably 3-4 EU airlineswill file bankruptcy the next month.In the US? maybe one, due to governmental subvention.
Right time to start?Yes for school (to avoid bankruptcy), but the answer is NOOOOOOO!!!!
Well guys, I dont see the futur very bright, so if you want struggle the rest of you life with udge debt and eat spaghetty or cat food everyday join one of our lovely training flight school, and you will finish next year in a mac donald to flipping .
Keep flying for fun, but do not try to become an airline pilot. It doesnt worth the money.Wait would be better to see if.....
When I mean pilots, I means guys with a real airline experience under their belt.No guys with frozen "ATP" (yes, i write ATP between " '', cuz no frozen ATP exists in the ICAO system).
Bankrupted airlines? yes, problably 3-4 EU airlineswill file bankruptcy the next month.In the US? maybe one, due to governmental subvention.
Right time to start?Yes for school (to avoid bankruptcy), but the answer is NOOOOOOO!!!!
Well guys, I dont see the futur very bright, so if you want struggle the rest of you life with udge debt and eat spaghetty or cat food everyday join one of our lovely training flight school, and you will finish next year in a mac donald to flipping .
Keep flying for fun, but do not try to become an airline pilot. It doesnt worth the money.Wait would be better to see if.....
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1. Don't believe everything that CNN says.
2. Their point of view is exclusively US.
3. Most airlines that are at risk of failure have been so for some time. Two US airlines (US Air and United) are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection now. American Airlines will probably join them. United may never recover. The only EU airline that is seriously in danger at the moment is Swiss.
4. Recovery has never taken 7 years after any world event since WW2. Throughout the Cold War, air travel increased at roughly 5% annually. The global political risks then were at least as high as now. Global commerce is very persuasive.
5. Poke off, Ronch!
Scroggs
2. Their point of view is exclusively US.
3. Most airlines that are at risk of failure have been so for some time. Two US airlines (US Air and United) are in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection now. American Airlines will probably join them. United may never recover. The only EU airline that is seriously in danger at the moment is Swiss.
4. Recovery has never taken 7 years after any world event since WW2. Throughout the Cold War, air travel increased at roughly 5% annually. The global political risks then were at least as high as now. Global commerce is very persuasive.
5. Poke off, Ronch!
Scroggs
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Hahahahahahahaaahahhahaa ... poor old Ronchonner ... it doesn't get any easier for you to make friends in here does it mate? 
For what it's worth, I reckon war = over in 3 or 4 days after it starts, Dubbya loses his excuse to go rampaging round the middle east like a bull in a china shop, and then the world can get on with the serious business of economic recovery.
For what it's worth, I reckon war = over in 3 or 4 days after it starts, Dubbya loses his excuse to go rampaging round the middle east like a bull in a china shop, and then the world can get on with the serious business of economic recovery.
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i don't know who this muppet Ronch is but lf1968 CNN is pure american propaganda....
IF we were to believe all they said sure everyone would be 1 nation under that mad cowboy they call a president.
Also frozen ATP's do exist.......lots of guys in Europe have them and EU are made of ICAO countries.....opps am i fogetting that you are in the US or are a yank???
Then nothing exists outside of the US sori to burst your bubble but there are lots of countries who lots and lots of pilots outside of the US and currently the hiring market in Europe is good.
IF we were to believe all they said sure everyone would be 1 nation under that mad cowboy they call a president.
Also frozen ATP's do exist.......lots of guys in Europe have them and EU are made of ICAO countries.....opps am i fogetting that you are in the US or are a yank???
Then nothing exists outside of the US sori to burst your bubble but there are lots of countries who lots and lots of pilots outside of the US and currently the hiring market in Europe is good.
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Hot news BBC today
Australia's Qantas airline is temporarily cutting 1,000 jobs as the world's airlines get ready for a sharp fall in the number of people travelling by plane.
Several Asia-Pacific airlines have also announced service cut-backs and cost cuts as war in Iraq gets closer.
"We're stepping up security measures and will scale back unprofitable routes to save fuel costs," said a spokesman for Korean Air.
Qantas Airways, Australia's flag carrier, said it would cut the equivalent of 1,000 jobs by forcing staff to take leave.
Many airlines, especially in the US, are still struggling to cope with the travel slump that followed the September 11 terrorist attacks. Many US airlines went into bankruptcy.
The airlines are also suffering from the global economic downturn and higher fuel prices.
Pay cuts
On Monday, United Airlines asked a US bankruptcy court to let it scrap existing labour contracts in order to get itself back on track.
United, the country's second largest carrier, also said it may have to ask all workers to accept a further 9% wage cut to offset the impact of a war against Iraq.
The credit ratings agency Moody's said it was considering downgrading two more US airlines - Delta and Northwest.
And American Airways began formal negotiations with its major unions over pay and benefit cuts in order to try to save it from bankruptcy.
The battered aviation industry has shed about 400,000 jobs since September 2001.
Several Asia-Pacific airlines have also announced service cut-backs and cost cuts as war in Iraq gets closer.
"We're stepping up security measures and will scale back unprofitable routes to save fuel costs," said a spokesman for Korean Air.
Qantas Airways, Australia's flag carrier, said it would cut the equivalent of 1,000 jobs by forcing staff to take leave.
Many airlines, especially in the US, are still struggling to cope with the travel slump that followed the September 11 terrorist attacks. Many US airlines went into bankruptcy.
The airlines are also suffering from the global economic downturn and higher fuel prices.
Pay cuts
On Monday, United Airlines asked a US bankruptcy court to let it scrap existing labour contracts in order to get itself back on track.
United, the country's second largest carrier, also said it may have to ask all workers to accept a further 9% wage cut to offset the impact of a war against Iraq.
The credit ratings agency Moody's said it was considering downgrading two more US airlines - Delta and Northwest.
And American Airways began formal negotiations with its major unions over pay and benefit cuts in order to try to save it from bankruptcy.
The battered aviation industry has shed about 400,000 jobs since September 2001.
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Hot news? I don't think so. Qantas' news was originally leaked a month or two back. Many airlines have announced slower growth or route cutbacks reflecting the disappointing economic situation over the last 3 or 4 months. The US airlines' problems are well known and have been strung out over the last 2 years; how United is still trading at all is difficult to credit(!).
The process of economic uncertainty and retrenchment in the months before a major war is well known, and has happened many times in the past. Equally predictable is the rapid recovery in the economic outlook as uncertainty is removed. The stock markets are already reacting in the time-honoured fashion even though not a shot has been fired (the same happened prior to Gulf War 1). Expect the oil price to drop to $20 per barrel within 3 months; those airlines that hedged their fuel 9 months or so ago when oil was $25 - $28 per barrel will do very well out of this! Those who buy on the spot markets will be suffering.
The cost of rebuilding Iraq, and the cost of military action, will be large, but not large enough to slow the West's economic recovery significantly. There is likely to be some trade backlash between the US and France, Russia and Germany, and some favouritism between the US and UK, Spain, Italy, Australia and the many others that have supported the US line. This will help economic recovery in those countries, and aviation will benefit.
I expect the outlook in 3 months' time to be very positive - but translating that into real jobs will take a good while!
Scroggs
The process of economic uncertainty and retrenchment in the months before a major war is well known, and has happened many times in the past. Equally predictable is the rapid recovery in the economic outlook as uncertainty is removed. The stock markets are already reacting in the time-honoured fashion even though not a shot has been fired (the same happened prior to Gulf War 1). Expect the oil price to drop to $20 per barrel within 3 months; those airlines that hedged their fuel 9 months or so ago when oil was $25 - $28 per barrel will do very well out of this! Those who buy on the spot markets will be suffering.
The cost of rebuilding Iraq, and the cost of military action, will be large, but not large enough to slow the West's economic recovery significantly. There is likely to be some trade backlash between the US and France, Russia and Germany, and some favouritism between the US and UK, Spain, Italy, Australia and the many others that have supported the US line. This will help economic recovery in those countries, and aviation will benefit.
I expect the outlook in 3 months' time to be very positive - but translating that into real jobs will take a good while!
Scroggs
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I heard some potentially smelly news from someone today - not sure if it is true though. I heard that if the war continues then BA will cut staff - I hope not since I know some people who are about to start with them or have just started. This chap said it was on the BBC a few days ago. Anyone care to confirm or deny the rumour?
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It is likely that many airlines will cut some routes, freeze recruiting and not replace retirements until the war is over and some idea of future trends is available. Some will, as after 9/11, actively reduce staffing levels - which may cause problems in the probable post-war recovery.
The war is likely to be a bit longer than many of us assumed, and the effects on airlines will be correspondingly larger. How much larger is anyone's guess, and individual airlines will be more or less pessimistic than me. I don't believe that we are on the edge of an aviation disaster, but some airlines may do and will react accordingly.
I didn't hear of BA's plans, but what you say would not surprise me.
Scroggs
The war is likely to be a bit longer than many of us assumed, and the effects on airlines will be correspondingly larger. How much larger is anyone's guess, and individual airlines will be more or less pessimistic than me. I don't believe that we are on the edge of an aviation disaster, but some airlines may do and will react accordingly.
I didn't hear of BA's plans, but what you say would not surprise me.
Scroggs
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on a US channel, a furloughed pilot of a major airline will get his job back in 2008 . this is what I heard.
I guess the futur is in regional airline, or corporate, but do not dream, it s not this year or even next year that airlines will be interested by pilot with no real qualification (min 500 h jet time).Remember 1991 in europe?
I guess the futur is in regional airline, or corporate, but do not dream, it s not this year or even next year that airlines will be interested by pilot with no real qualification (min 500 h jet time).Remember 1991 in europe?
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The ups and downs of this industry are too large and unpredictable to be able to say whether an individual will have to wait until 2008 to get a job. The airline industry in the US is about (that is, within the next 18 months) to undergo a major shake-up which will probably see the major 6 becoming the major 4. The staff cost base (particularly pilot salaries) will be reduced considerably from the ridiculous levels of a couple of years ago - United and American have staff costs of around 50% of revenue! In comparison, Virgin's is 15.9%, BA's around 27%. Once this restructuring is achieved - and it will be painful - the US industry will recover sharply.
Scroggs
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An article in “Flying” magazine’s March 2003 issue was probably read by a CNN staffer as it supports those bleak numbers, furloughed pilots not being recalled until 5-7 years from now, and no new real new-hires until 7-10 years. I’m not sure if these numbers take into account a major airline liquidating.
It does look bleak, but we have been there before with recessions and oil shortages. However, the thing to watch for is structural change in the industry. Many large companies are restricting business travel, no more full fare business tickets, the stuff that UAL and the others relied on to feed their hub and spoke machine. A big bailout by the government may not happen, a congressman was on the news the other day stated that he can’t vote for one when pilots are earning $300,000 a year and working 50 hours a month while the people in his district are making $8-11 an hour. It always seems pilots are the problem.
The article in the magazine was trying to push regional jets as the next best thing, however it seems that $100k is basically tops for that job. A middle manager or techie type with 10-15 years experience can make that money or more without having to spend $40-50k learning the skills then flight instructing at $20 and hour for years.
The scary part about these major bankruptcies is if liquidations happen a lot qualified pilots will be on the market and there could be a cascading effect where regional feeders have no one to feed and they end up liquidating.
No one has a crystal ball that is 100% accurate, usually the experts are wrong. Other than the prior period of 8 years when airlines expanded and hired it seems like it was always a boom or bust for airline hiring. Train in the slow times and be positioned when business picks up. If a major airlines liquidates there will be more cheap airplanes available leading to more startup airlines copying the SW business model.
It does look bleak, but we have been there before with recessions and oil shortages. However, the thing to watch for is structural change in the industry. Many large companies are restricting business travel, no more full fare business tickets, the stuff that UAL and the others relied on to feed their hub and spoke machine. A big bailout by the government may not happen, a congressman was on the news the other day stated that he can’t vote for one when pilots are earning $300,000 a year and working 50 hours a month while the people in his district are making $8-11 an hour. It always seems pilots are the problem.
The article in the magazine was trying to push regional jets as the next best thing, however it seems that $100k is basically tops for that job. A middle manager or techie type with 10-15 years experience can make that money or more without having to spend $40-50k learning the skills then flight instructing at $20 and hour for years.
The scary part about these major bankruptcies is if liquidations happen a lot qualified pilots will be on the market and there could be a cascading effect where regional feeders have no one to feed and they end up liquidating.
No one has a crystal ball that is 100% accurate, usually the experts are wrong. Other than the prior period of 8 years when airlines expanded and hired it seems like it was always a boom or bust for airline hiring. Train in the slow times and be positioned when business picks up. If a major airlines liquidates there will be more cheap airplanes available leading to more startup airlines copying the SW business model.
I think this is a very bad time to be a Wannabe. There are threads, probably unfounded, about My Travel foundering. Were such a thing to happen then Wannabe prospects would take yet another 18 month setback.
Lets keep out fingers crossed.
On the bright side the industry is set to grow 180% in the next 10 years or so. There are plenty of retirements coming up. If you can delay entering the market then do so. I know I for one have been saying that since Sept11th and its cold comfort to those already committed.
And yet. Today I spoke to a low houred guy just hired by easyJet and on a B737 course in the coming weeks.
So the picture whilst bleak does have some bright spots.
Good luck,
WWW
Lets keep out fingers crossed.
On the bright side the industry is set to grow 180% in the next 10 years or so. There are plenty of retirements coming up. If you can delay entering the market then do so. I know I for one have been saying that since Sept11th and its cold comfort to those already committed.
And yet. Today I spoke to a low houred guy just hired by easyJet and on a B737 course in the coming weeks.
So the picture whilst bleak does have some bright spots.
Good luck,
WWW
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do you remember of a guy who has posted this last year and everybody was making fun of him(I guess you know who is this guy?:-----------------------------------
no job for the next 10 years
hello,
my forecast is no job for the next 10 years and there will be no shortage of pilots .
if you are in a JAA course or you want join a JAA school, keep your money and do something else.
I am a student at the university, I have a major in international economy and I want to warn you before you make a big mistake.
Good luck to the other pilots who are still waiting or looking for a flying job.
no job for the next 10 years
hello,
my forecast is no job for the next 10 years and there will be no shortage of pilots .
if you are in a JAA course or you want join a JAA school, keep your money and do something else.
I am a student at the university, I have a major in international economy and I want to warn you before you make a big mistake.
Good luck to the other pilots who are still waiting or looking for a flying job.
10 years is pushing it way too far.
WWW
WWW
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bad for the troops but good for me
I love to hear these pesimistic views.......
The way i look at it; the more people read the 'propoganda' (and poor spelling) of the likes of lf1968 the better! thats one less competitor for me when i'm qualified next year!
This war is obviously going to have a detrimental effect on the airline industry. Always look on the bright side of things - i know that things will be difficult for all of us but if you want it enough then i'm sure you'l suceed! I am realistic and optomistic - both at the same time- if thats possible!!!!
thats my input..
p.s. i have slagged the poor spelling of lf1968, please no replies telling me i've spelt something rongue!!! (wrong)
The way i look at it; the more people read the 'propoganda' (and poor spelling) of the likes of lf1968 the better! thats one less competitor for me when i'm qualified next year!
This war is obviously going to have a detrimental effect on the airline industry. Always look on the bright side of things - i know that things will be difficult for all of us but if you want it enough then i'm sure you'l suceed! I am realistic and optomistic - both at the same time- if thats possible!!!!
thats my input..
p.s. i have slagged the poor spelling of lf1968, please no replies telling me i've spelt something rongue!!! (wrong)
