As SLF I cant really critique your analysis, but judging by two factors, your very sensible, reasoned and logical previous posts, and obvious experience it sounds quite plausible.
I found the video clips really disturbing as I was shocked by the angle in which the aircraft hit the ground. I have studied transport accidents as part of my masters in risk management and investigation, so the combination of errors which led to Kegworth, Potter's Bar, Everglades, Ladbroke Grove disasters are very familiar. The Swiss cheese lined up in a certain way, but the errors were subtle and deceptive. What I struggle with is that an aircraft can impact at such an angle.