Sorry I personally agree with the pro's
But I suspect that the consumers are going to not upgrade.
I know that it doesn't matter what I say to the boss he isn't going to upgrade the works PC's. If they die and the new one comes with Win8 on it so be it.
It isn't just personal data at risk, it's the internet as a whole that can be hugely impacted by large numbers of unpatched PCs with out-of-date OSes.
This is going to be the carrying factor I suspect.
Its going to end up being the pro IT admins who are going to suffer. And it could very well be that things implode but I honestly can't see a mass migration away from XP aka what happened over Y2K. And to be honest there is still a lot of feeling out there because of Y2K with a lot of people seeing the whole thing as a waste of time and money.
The longer it takes for something not to happen the less pressure there will be to change.
To be honest I wouldn't be surprised if something comes out about a month after the support finishes. It will be of a very high technical standard almost as if the had access to the full technical documentation to the OS. It will of course be fatal to the OS requiring it to be wiped and a new OS to be installed.