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Old 8th Oct 2013, 12:41
  #1266 (permalink)  
Logohu
 
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Infact what he has said which may just come as a bit of a bombshell to MAG, is that point to point long haul travel is not environmentally friendly therefore its best if we deter these flights (see APD which is already doing a good job) and focus one 100% on a mega hub down South.

Most of MAN's longhaul is point to hub, eg CO to EWR/IAD, AA to ORD/JFK, DL to ATL, SQ to SIN,the MEB3 to DXB/AUH/DOH. Even the TCX routes to Florida and Caribbean destinations are becoming mini-hub to point next year (rather than point to point) when the deal with Condor and Flybe starts. A lot of the shorthaul legacy flying is point to hub as well.

So I don't think MAG need to worry too much about what the Davies Commission recommends, unless of course they recommend something completely dumb like increasing APD from the regions and/or reducing it from LHR. Airlines will fly where they can make money, not where a Govt appointed committee or an airport lobby group think they should fly to, and all the indications are that that most of the current longhaul offerings from MAN are doing well enough to justify their existence.

And of course anything the Commission recommends will not even be considered by the Government until at least 2015 after the next election. Then there will be the usual debating, pandering and compromising to the various lobby groups / nimbys, and general dithering around before any decision is made, which even if it goes the way of extra runways at LHR will still take years to build. If the next Government is another coalition it may take even longer to make a decision, or be shelved altogether !!

In the meantime, what do airlines who want to grow their presence in the UK in the next few years actually do once the few remaining slots at LHR are all used up ? Yes some will upgrade to larger aircraft at LHR to make more out of the slots they already have, but depending on the airline and routes involved it may not always be economic for them to do that. So some will look elsewhere to increase their UK presence - LGW or STN only give them an increased presence in the SE corner, as neither airport is properly connected by air or land to the rest of th UK. And to an extent airlines who set themselves up at LGW/STN often end up competing with their own flights at LHR, with LHR still taking most of the front end passengers, leaving their LGW/STN flights running at a loss.

MAN on the other hand with its excellent surface transport, central location, and dual runways (and to a lesser extent BHX), is still in a favourable position to pick up additional airlines and routes over the next few years simply because LHR is already close to full and will take years to further expand. Perhaps this was the thinking at Egyptair, TAP and others when they started MAN, the rumoured Saudia flights, and the airline that closed LGW in favour of MAN (Qatar I think ?) ?? These are the airlines MAN should be courting, as well as looking after their existing and growing clients by making sure the terminal and parking space at MAN is available to cater for them all at the times they want to fly. The terminals are now bursting at the seams at certain times of the day, as are the parking bays.

As for direct China flights, I still think HKG would be a better route from MAN as it opens up the most onward connections into China and other Far East / Australasian points. But given the lack of interest so far from CX and no other viable based airline at HKG, then a service to CAN, SHA, or PEK might just work if served by a carrier based at one of those hubs. I can't see this happening though until one of these airlines achieves critical mass at LHR, they are still not yet even daily to LHR in some cases.
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