@swh
I agree with most of your analysis, especially where SQ downfall is due to ME carrier. However, you never cover the cause behind it? What is the cause, SQ offer pretty good product and brand, so what went wrong? Partly this is due to ME carrier aggressive pricing, so why doesn't this impact CX as much as it impact SQ?
This is because of a few key mistake made by SQ, as well as impact from Jetstar Asia. First of all, as I mention before, SQ is unable to offset their long haul pricing because of the reduce profitability from their regional flights due to Jetstar Asia. Jetstar compete with SQ on every one of their most profitable routes and completely taken out any margin out of those markets. This have a significant impact on SQ ability to cross subsidise their operations without making a loss at the whole airline. This have a significant impact on EY fare on SQ kangaroo route. Secondly, during the last product upgrade cycle, SQ went over the top on their J class upgrade. The results is a 20 to 25% seat reduction in J-Class. This also limits their ability to reduce J-Class pricing to compete with ME carrier and CX. In the same period, CX is very effective on their Y class pricing on their Kangaroo routes, matching ME carrier pricing when capacity is not constrained. While CX slightly more crammed herringbone and now reverse herringbone J-Class product (with less than 10% lost of seats count), allow CX to significantly undercut SQ and remain competitive with many ME carrier in J pricing. This is also the reason why CX managed to hold onto their 5% market share in the Australian market.
As for Jetstar head office and control and reference to that in the media, if you do a search on Bloomberg terminals, you will notice over a dozen of comments made by Jetstar, Qantas, as well as Alan Joyce about their plan and control of Jetstar Hong Kong. Most of these can probably be use in the basic law argument if this is to ever go to court. I can't believe how stupid Qantas can be by making all these public statement. But anyway, that's another story.