Buggington,
You appear to have thought things through very carefully, researched thoroughly, and are capable of presenting your thoughts well. These are skills that will shine through during an airline selection process.
I completely understand your hesitance to sign up - I'm not sure what I would do in the current circumstances. There is some age old advice that I was given ten years ago when I was where you are now. That is that pilot training, however you do it, is a risk. Even chaps who sign up via the military can fail a check ride and end up as an RAF officer doing "other duties". Those on tagged schemes can find their airline going bust or revising their recruitment needs mid way through the course. It's a minefield.
The advice I received was to fully understand the risks you face, make a plan that mitigates the worst of the risk and have a backup, should the worst occur. There is no risk free method. Pilots are required on a day to day basis to assess and manage risk.
I was unaware of the new rules about apprenticeships, but it does sound like a huge step forward. I can only encourage you to pursue your ambition in a considered manner. It's an amazing job and I know I wouldn't be truly happy doing anything else.
Best of luck
