Long-term Prognosis
Forgive me a long first post here, please...
I've been doing a lot of thinking recently about the present state of play in air transport safety and likely effects of some influences upon the pilot workforce. In particular, I've been folllowing the recent IATA findings.
There's not a lot of good news on this site or elsewhere about employment as a professional pilot. I don't mean the prospects for those seeking work, I mean the way in which those working as flight deck crew feel that they are managed, rewarded, rested, and generally made to feel valued.
In recent years, there have been some reasonable steps forward towards improved safety, though these have often centred on technological solutions to known problems. Some have brought their own difficulties too: the Lake Constance mid-air would not have occurred without TCAS, but we don't know how many mid-airs it has prevented. The regulatory framework is coming under the spotlight more with the possibility of greater regulation of matters which have, until now, been at the discretion of the aircraft crew.
I am concerned that, as some parts of the safety framework move in a positive manner, the job of the professional aviator will be less attractive to able, intelligent, individuals (of whatever race, creed, culture, social standing), and we will find the average pilot to be a less effective problem-solver, less able to identify and arrest a developing error chain, less able to handle an aircraft accurately at a time of stress, and so on.
Crucially, will this, in the long term, mean more accidents?
In the short term, some able pilots may perform less well as a result of their demotivation. It is theoretically possible that some pilots may, for example, feel so dis-heartened, that they develop 'problems' which seriously affect their functioning in and out of work.
I acknowledge that I am dealing with many intangible factors, theorising from an individual perspective, and doing a little 'blue sky' thinking, if you like.
Am I wide of the mark? May we discuss?