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Long-term Prognosis

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Old 18th Mar 2003, 13:17
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Desk-pilot

There are alternatives - the only trouble is that most people aren't open minded enough to explore same unless they are really hurting (financially, I mean!)
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Old 28th Mar 2003, 22:52
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I have come upon a fascinating report commissioned by the JAA.

Subject? Commercial pressure on airline pilots.

It is a very comprehensive review of the problem.

http://www.icon-consulting.com/study...ummaryv2_0.pdf

Just how DO we stop the rot?
 
Old 29th Mar 2003, 21:55
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Cool Getting out of IT

I think once people really start to grow up, in my case, in my mid-thirties, you realize that there's things you want to do that are not going to get done if you are stuck behind a computer and desk.

Most of the fun stuff, like training, gratuitous 'field testing' of software in interesting locations, laid back work environment, decent office, regular pay rises, and fun coworkers ... all these things have gradually reduced, certainly in my IT career. I joined a big oil services company for more money, and for the opportunity to travel. It was great for a while, but although the money is decent, the feeling that there is other things 'out there', that once I only dreamed of, like flying, is like a driving force out of IT.

I have pilot friends that tell me how much worse it has got, but to their credit no one has tried to talk me out of trying to fly as a career. I am not expecting too much, but I hope to be able to put food in my mouth, and maybe one day to fly in corporate or a regional ... for now, with the industry in the mess it's in, I will do my best to get my licenses finished, and find an instructing position, banner tow, whatever, just to keep flying.

From my perspective, the people I know in aviation are still part of a big family, and there's a cameraderie and shared experience missing from many other parts of life.

At low levels of the industry, at least from what I see locally here in the states, there is still instructor turnover, and enough activity that it should be possible to land a job, even though there is not too much hiring in the higher levels.

Hopefully, this is as bad as it is going to get, and the next few years will be better. The oil industry is similar. Maybe a year or two to go from 40% layoffs to hiring anyone with a pulse ... lets hope it improves.
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Old 2nd Apr 2003, 16:39
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Snoop

> Also, how do those of us who are 'too old' to change careers feel? Are you stuck in a trap of high earnings but poor lifestyle? Would you do something different if you were ten/twenty years younger? <


Poor lifestyle ? ...
I may not fall in the too old category, don’t feel it anyway.
But I’ve been flying for 16 and a half years now and I still love this lifestyle.
Agreed I’m trapped in high earnings. I could not get this amount right away anywhere else.
But I would do what I do for less.
Agreed it used to be even better.
After the 6th or 7th round of cost cutting measures one gets a little cynical.
Layovers get shorter, hotels less luxurious, rest time shortened.
But I still got a very good deal going.
The day I’m really not enjoying it anymore, I’ll pack up and leave. I promise.
There’s always something to do. (maybe easier said since I have no kids).

If I had to start this career now I might be a bit discouraged.
The economic status would scare me somewhat.
But I still maintain I got one of the best jobs in the world.
I don’t know if a new starter can reach this spot, cause I don’t know if this spot will still exist by the time they get the seniority.
That does indeed worry me.
Also frustrates cause I don’t believe I can do much about it.

The importance of safety seems linked with money.
I know my recurrent training has been reduced over the years.
This doesn’t seem to affect the ticket buying public though.
So I believe we are indeed destined towards the low cost route.
Free market will dictate.

What am I gonna do about it ?
Nothing.
Report for duty with a smile and try to vote smart within my union.
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Old 14th Apr 2003, 21:50
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Next time you're in the terminal pick up a copy of Naomi Klein's No Logo and read the chapter entitled "No Jobs". There are worrying parallels between the trend toward McJobs in mainstream businesses and the pilot employment market.

Most "industrial" companies are increasingly reliant upon "outsourced" manpower, in other words; temps. The benefit for a company like Microsoft in having the majority of it's employees on temporary contracts is that it has no obligation to offer (or honour) long-term contracts, holiday pay or benefits like pensions and health insurance. They pay the employment agency a fixed fee for a service, in this case manpower, delivered at an hourly or daily rate. The employment agency in turn benefits from it's legal status as an intermediary and thus has no obligation to pay holidays, sickness cover, medical or pensions for it's "clients", in this case the workers. Thus the agencies' overhead is low so the temps they provide are cheaper for the companies than real employees would be and there is no incentive to create REAL JOBS.

Now compare this way of working with wet-leasing. Not all that different is it? This is especially true when you look at recent deals like Virgin's dry-lease out/wet-lease in deal with AAI. Where did AAI add value in that deal? By operating Virgin's own aircraft more cheaply that VS could. And how did they do that? By having a much, much lower cost base and the principle lever they use to lower their cost base is to reduce the roles of all operational staff to "McJobs", i.e. jobs offering no security, no long-term prospects and no benefits all of which would have the effect of making their employees (sorry, contractors) just as expensive as Virgin's.

Klein goes so far as to suggest that providers of McJobs go out of their way to discourage workers from staying and gain seniority as well as discouraging them from forming unions. I can say from first hand experience that this is not the case at AAI, however the formula they have hit upon does have the potential to make fundamental changes for the profession of flying.

Just a thought, figured it would give us something to talk about.
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Old 14th Apr 2003, 22:10
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I think Gordinho's point about the emloying McPilot's for McJobs is valid.

Due to the greater intensity of working patterns in some airlines these days - I'm thinking of low cost of course - it must have an effect on career paths. Consider embarking on a thirty year career flying 900 hours a year of short sectors. Is this really feasible for an individual. Certianly not one who wants a life - and a family life too.

The problem is that this is probably what the airlines actually want. Get the pilots in the system in their early twenties. Train them, bond them so they cannot change airline easily, work them very hard to get a return on investment, let them get early commands as the incentive and then flog them to death as Captains for a few years until they burn out in their early thirties.

There is a clear commercial advantage hear. You get stability of employment because you will do your time due to the bond and the command prospects with the enhanced earnings. You also get a labour force that is cheaper overall.

Why? Because you do away with incremental salary increases, costly pension scemes and other benefits. The overall salary package is therefore cheaper. Furthermore you don't have a pilot shortage as there will always be a younger, willing workforce to work hard for ten years or so. Additionally a younger workforce is less likely to be unionised and the airlines hate unions.

So, the airline gets what is wants.

But . . . where do all the experienced pilots go and what are the safety implications?
 
Old 14th Apr 2003, 22:37
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We also have to look at the changes in the airline market itself. It really is no exaggeration to say that the salad days are over. Low-costs in Europe have all but killed the notion of national airlines within the EU (or will do so soon). Passengers are wise to the fact that, over the course of a seventy minute sector, the full-service carriers service wasn't really all that different (Air Miles excepted) and subsequently they are increasingly going low cost wherever possible.

At the same time, the downturn in business post 9/11 has accelerated the process of restructuring in the aviation market with sickly majors going to wall left, right and centre and freeing up slots at the major airports, access to which was their last shred of competitive advantage in the battle with the low-costs. Passengers might have baulked at the flying Stansted-Beauvais with Ryanair but LGW-ORY will do nicely. The airports, having invested massively in turning themselves into oversized shopping malls will have to keep people coming through the gates so the slots will need to be filled and in the absence of the nationals the low-costs will have to fill them and the airports will take whatever revenue they can get.

The long-haul market will be interesting to watch. Personally, I used to wonder how the numbers would look for smaller twin-jets flying all "C" or "F" class on the Atlantic with extremely high flexibility and leaving the big cattle trucks to fly less frequently but full of economy pax paying un-discounted fares. This was a few years ago and it seemed a little outlandish at the time but now we see Lufthansa experimenting with all "C" class BBJs flying the Atlantic. For people willing to pay biz class the benefits of a smaller aircraft are clear. They won't have to hang about for four hundred "proles" to get on their plane so their check-in times can be reduced, boarding and deplaning takes no time and the cost is not significantly different (since these people generally don't pay the fares anyway a difference of 5 or 10% might not be considered the end of the world).

Equally, the benefits for the airlines are clear. They could maintain reasonable frequency for business travel without having the burden of filling two or three hundred economy seats on those flights which has the undesirable consequence of causing a glut of economy seats meaning they must be sold at cost or less to fill them. In other words, the big iron would fly less.

Again, these are just fun theories to chuck about but I think they add up to aviation being a much less fun business to be in in the future, which goes some way to explaining why I quit aviation and am in the last few weeks of my MBA. I intend to do my flying at the weekends in a Yak!
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Old 14th Apr 2003, 22:55
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Best of luck but I hear there is a glut of qualified MBA's now!!!

Something to do with Capitalism......
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Old 14th Apr 2003, 22:58
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It's not what you got, it's where you got it!

Something to do with Nepotism
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Old 17th Apr 2003, 17:22
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On a positive note, I still look out of the office window and think "...and I get paid for this as well"! Sometimes we just have to look at why we got into the business at all - not many of us did it for the money.
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Old 17th Apr 2003, 19:35
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Hmmm, At 28 I earn more than any of my non-flying mates, I go to work less often and I look forward to my working day at least half the time - my contempories mostly live for the weekend.

By getting into aviation I have met hundreds of really great people and seen some pretty impressive sights in just a couple of years. Not something many of my friends claim and they have good graduate jobs by any other standard.

Nothing is ever as good as it once was and sure - the golden period of professional aviating dissapeared a long time ago. But the same is true in virtually every profession I can think of. I suspect we are towards the bottom of the cycle at the moment where pilots are in a poor bargaining position.

In 5 years time I think the position will be very different and thus we can look forward to a betterment in pilot terms & conditions.

Here's hoping.

WWW
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Old 17th Apr 2003, 21:48
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WWW, you raise, as ever, some interesting points. Might I comment?

>>I look forward to my working day at least half the time - my contempories mostly live for the weekend.<<

Ten years on you may have a family and weekends will be really important and you might have a different feeling about it all.

>>I suspect we are towards the bottom of the cycle at the moment where pilots are in a poor bargaining position<<

Sure. Been there before and have the Tea Shirt. However, there is a major structural change in the industry that makes this cycle different. That is the tight budgetry control which airlines must manage, Any alleviation in our lifestyle issues (less flying, pricy bidline packages, more nice managers to listen to our problems, more days off, friendly rosters etc) will only come at a cost.

>>In 5 years time I think the position will be very different and thus we can look forward to a betterment in pilot terms & conditions.<<

I do hope so but I fear the airlines will manipulate the circumstances as hard as they can to avoid this.

The only issue that will drive things forward for pilots is a real and painful pilot shortage. I.e. a set of circumstances whereby the airlines simply have to give us the contract terms and conditions we want in order to trade seats.

Unless someone makes a cast iron safety case for a pilot friendly contract . . .
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Old 17th Apr 2003, 22:11
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Don't overestimate the salaries of other professions

I think as a group pilots seem to overestimate the earnings available in other professions - sure a top Harley Street Consultant earns £150 000 a year or more but they're a tiny percentage of Doctors - most are GP's who earn between £25 and £60 000. In my own field of IT as a Graduate with 11 years experience aged 33 I was earning £44 000 and that was more than all of my other IT Graduate friends most of whom were earning mid to high £30k's. IT Contractors earn between £300 and £500 a day but have no job, security or pension and now the market for them has collapsed they frequently aren't earning anything. My wife was an IT Contractor and in her best year took home £39000 - maybe £70 000 gross equivalent.

I do think that City salaries are a hideous joke in banking etc but again I suspect the numbers of people making those salaries are relatively low.

I don't know any poor airline pilots, sure the starting salaries aren't great, but in the low cost carriers it seems you can get a command within 5 years which as I understand it means a basic of £65 000 which is hardly to be sneezed at is it? Most SFO's with say 5-7 years experience in a flag carrier seem to take home £4000-£4500 a month which means that potentially in 7 years I could be earning double my previous IT salary.

Because of the lifestyle implications and the costs of funding your own training I would hope nobody goes into this career for anything other than a passion to fly. I know I'm making a considerable financial sacrifice to train because it's the only thing I've ever wanted to do. In short I don't want to get to 60 and look back on a mundane life in an office wondering 'what if?'

I firmly believe you have to do something you love in life to be truly happy and selling out for money doesn't bring fulfilment long term once the buzz of a nice holiday, new care etc has worn off.

Desk-pilot
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Old 23rd Apr 2003, 06:02
  #34 (permalink)  
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Professional Colleagues,

Thanks for your thoughts so far in this thread.

RTO makes some plaintive statements, but ones which I can see have their foundations in deep feeling.

I'll think more before posting my deeper thoughts, but in answer to RTO, what do WE do, the ones who cannot grow our hair long, saw the light too late, who were too brave or stupid to know better...?

Desk-pilot, I follow your argument, but I don't agree with it. Should all the money in the world be sufficient recompense for continuous sadness, failed relationships, ageing without living, etc? No, and again, no!

I'm delighted that this thread has kept going, with new life injected every so often, and hope it will continue to do so.

Don't stop talking.
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Old 23rd Apr 2003, 07:50
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Long Term Prognosis

As a fifty something ex wannabe I find it sad to note that there is a great deal of dissatisfaction within this thread.
It seems to me that the burning desire "to fly" that must have motivated many of you has been overtaken by a deep rooted dissatisfaction with your chosen profession.

What happened to "flying for flying's sake".I understand that work place changes have denuded many of the ideals that would have prompted the original urge to choose flying as a career, but surely flying in itself must still be a great motivator.

Having worked alongside many of you during a long career spent
working for airlines in various ground jobs I have an understanding of the " working enviroment " that professional pilots have to live with, and I sympathise with the sometimes "cynical" emotions that come across.

As an ex wannabe, I still wish that I'd had the opportunity to fly professionly.(I was precluded by defective colour vision)

WWW
Your general sense of optimism is a great stimulus, and must be a great motivator for many.
Long may it continue.
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Old 24th Apr 2003, 02:00
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Yarmouth,

If you want to "fly for flying's sake", i suggest you find a nice comfortable job that pays lots of money, so you can take the time off to go and fly whatever you fancy.
But to be in a position where the pure flying is limited by company rules about using autopilots, FMS, bank angles, vertical speed etc, while having to cope with all sorts of stress caused by outside factors that do affect your flight and trying to compensate for them, especially the failings of others, while you keep being told by your management/beancounters that you are too expensive an asset, that you need to work more, cost less, and be more flexible, has taken a lot of the fun out of it.

Most of us want to enjoy our flying, but that entails more than simply handling the aircraft. It is about making operational decisions, and contributing to the flight. In order to do that properly, we need to be seen and respected for what we are, namely highly trained and motivated professionals. The sad thruth is that there is very little respect for what we do from the people who ultimately decide our fate as employees. That is why I hesitate to recommend this line of work, especially not with the enormous cost involved.
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