ATPMBA,
The only difference between 2003 and 1991 is that this time around the government slowed the progress of airlines towards liquidation with the ATSB, thereby harming the rest of the industry.
There is NO ability to shrink an airline to profitability during a recession. The structural costs are too high and remain regardless of whether you keep all the people and fly the aircraft or park the aircraft and layoff all the people. When an airline shrinks during a recession its breakeven loadfactor GOES UP!
The only thing that cures the airline industry during a recession is that 1 or 2 airlines is allowed to liquidate, always to the cries of teutonic shifts and 10s of thousands displaced from work. PAN AM, Eastern, Braniff, Midway, Name the recession since the end of deregulation and I will name the dead airline.
Once USair and or United liquidate the industry can go back to its disfunctional ways untill the next recessions, when another airline will be thrown upon the alter of free enterprise and sacrificed.
The claims of conference calls has also been made in every recession, and while some customers will do that, the economy America grows every year, so as some leave others come, and at the end of the day no one signs a billion dollar contract over the phone. Before you write the check you will still want to look the person in the eye and shake his hands. If business travel shrinks somewhat an airline will be liquidated untill the balance is struck.
When the extreme life or death pressure is let up on the rest of the airline's Oldage 84 I suspect that service will improve at those that are left. But while they are fighting every day for survival that takes a toll in too many ways to count.
Cheers
Wino