Now war has openly broken out between the Free Syrian Army and the jihadist nutters such as the al Nura front.
Got a source for that? I'd be interested to see a bit more.
So it is Assad Vs FSA Vs Islamic Nutters. A 3 way fight.
Good news for Assad, I think.
This means that the civil war has started before the revolution has been won!
It may also mean that the civil war has grown before the revolution was lost, by Assad.
The nutters are trying to create an extreme sharia theocracy (which Israel does not want as a neighbour!). The FSA want a pluralistic democracy (supposedly). Assad wants a brutal family dictatorship.
Is it really that simple?
This makes intervention by USA, EU, Turkey and Israel vastly more likely. Firstly because they don't want the nutters (or Assad) to win.
Secondly because they can now support the FSA with minimal danger of leakage to the nutters.
Not so sure about that. I'd guess alliances remain fluid, on the ground.
The biggest initial effort will be to diplomatically isolate the nutters. This means politely asking Saudi, Qatar etc to stop sending them weapons. The CIA will also be working on the ground to ahieve the same purpose.
I don't think that sale will be made. Saudis and Qatar have no reason to go along with that.
Next the FSA will get lots of nice shiny Gucci kit.
Likely.
Next the USA will follow their normal MO and throw drones at the problem. A few drones based in Akrotiri, Turkey and Jordan would very quickly make a huge difference.
Might do, but maybe this time the US will do its best not to advertise that. The ability of people in Washington to keep their pie holes shut is staggeringly low.
I don't think any drone strikes would target Assad or his forces. Why? The nutters are a bigger problem than he is, long term, and keeping the Russians from getting too pissed off is an important political consideration.
Obviously the integrated air defence system will have to be degraded so some SEAD would also be necessary.
Not sure you are right about that.
A no fly zone is possible but would be very expensive and problematic to maintain.
Agree, but I don't think a no fly zone will be a chosen course of action.
Israel has already intervened more than widely publicised. Mainly to neutralise Assad's Gucci kit. The new situation makes them more likely to ramp up such activity.
Probably right. They look out for themselves.