I think Johny Boy has answered most of your questions on my behalf, regarding rest I will definitely give my thoughts on it.
Again, Please do not expect the airlines to hire all the unemployed pilots at once. unemployment is the part and parcel of every industry. Even after 100 years from now,there would still be a good amount of unemployed pilots in the aviation industry. hired people are replaced by new struggling freshers.
you said 247 cpl were issued this year,do you know what is making these aspirants to leave for the flying?? they all know that the airlines are creating opportunities and things have gone better,they have a chance. they have opportunities here and there may be after type rating but they have. people are getting hired and new hordes with fresh cpl are getting into the queue making the number intact at 6000.
"demand and supply", mismatch is greater in this industry between these two as compared to the other fields. but one thing i am sure of is DEMAND and in this industry it will always be there. the problem is the supply which is huge. Again skilled and talented need not have to worry, they will be hired eventually.
But what is going to happen in a year or two? Instead of just plain CPL holders cribbing about unemployment, we will have a sizable number of type rated CPL holders cribbing about unemployment. The size of Indian aviation is just not big enough to absorb a "reasonable" percentage of the unemployed CPL holders with or without a type rating!
I'll wait to see whether you get a type rating or not in order to get a job and trust me as johny boy talked out if given easy access to finances,you will be first one to run after a rating with or without assurance from airlines.
I suspect we have different methods of estimating the number of FOs hired. I use the number of aircraft inducted by operators. You seem to use the number of recruitment exercises. The reason why i don't use the recruitment exercises is because it does not come from official sources and is generally only word of the mouth. Sometimes just rumors. The number of aircraft with different airlines in India can be verified from DGCA's website. Where can i go to find out the number of people hired by airlines?
so you mean the recruitment exercises are all eyewash?? Job advertisement on the website, applications, results of the written,interviews and sim checks, calls from the airlines and confirmation of recruitment from the selected people and company officials are all rumors and lack authenticity.
These are not the official sources ???? right???
forums discussions over the particular airline interviews and sim checks are all time pass??
So, In that case,I believe that you will definitely not believe the current jet airways 2013 opening too??
In order to confirm the vacancies and before you apply for the opening go to the DGCA office, confirm the induction of the aircraft's by the jet and then when you are completely assured,apply for the vacancy.
The last time Air India came up with a vacancy for non-TR guys was in April 2009. Jet came up with one in Aug 2010. They came up with a vacancy again in Feb 2011. The Feb 2011 recruitment exercise has STILL not been completed. Indigo has not recruited anyone in more than a year and same is perhaps() the case with Spicejet. Infact Indigo has a surplus of pilots.
You said you don't use the method of recruitment exercises to estimate anything and they all are rumors. well you used the same method above when you tried to prove your point and got into the debate of "reasonable number of people getting hired". you said you don't believe them,they all are rumors then why did you take the rumor method to prove your point.
You just contradicted yourself. I guess you are negative and confused.
Another thing, you seem to be talking about just the airlines. civil aviation includes charters, state government flying and corporate flying too. I don't think that you have worked enough on getting the facts correct regarding the induction of the aircraft's, you did your homework half. charter companies and corporate companies have inducted lots of aircraft's in the last 2-3 years. get the list from the dgca site, i am stating my facts on the basis of the authenticity of the information. They have created vacancies too for the unemployed pilots making the things better and creating job opportunities.
so, when I said things have gone better in the last 4 years, I was not wrong my dear friend.