PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Climate change will lead to bumpier flights, say scientists
Old 12th Apr 2013, 23:11
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Ian W
 
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The UK Met Office and the IPCC have accepted that there has been no statistically significant 'global warming' since 1997. So in the face of no change we will get more turbulence in jet streams?

CO2 itself cannot cause global warming it is a trace gas that scatters (absorbs then immediately re-emits) infrared photons in 3 narrow bands which are already mainly in the water vapor absorption bands. The hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming - was that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere would cause sufficient warming to accelerate the hydrological cycle leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere and that extra water vapor would lead to more infrared being trapped and that would lead to more warming then more water vapor etc etc to Venusian atmosphere tipping points...

The hypothesized extra water vapor being driven by CO2 would be found as a hot spot in the tropical troposphere at or around the tropopause. This hotspot appears in EVERY global climate model. (Un)fortunately, after several thousand balloon sondes, satellite microwave scanning and met flights - no trace of this hotspot has been found not at all nothing. So not only has there been no warming but the single agreed on signal of the atmosphere warming the tropical tropospheric hotspot is not there. What _has_ happened is that the Earth has warmed out of the Little Ice Age which ended after a few hundred years in the late 1700's and that warming has been in fits and starts. Russian scientists are now convinced that the Earth is cooling again. (see below)

The Antarctic is at record ice levels and record cold. Greenland recently set some record cold temperatures. The Arctic ice did melt last summer to levels it reached in the late 1920's and has now all refrozen at record speed. There is apparently an oscillation of ice at the North or South poles.

The jet streams indubitably moved equatorward as anyone flying the North Atlantic Ocean Track Structure will tell you. I have seen some really strange mid-Atlantic crossings in the last few years. However, that is more likely due to the reduction in convection in the ITCZ - or as the weather people would call it the Hadley cells - these are the convective cells where the Earth receives most heat from the Sun between the tropics of Capricorn and Cancer. If they do not bubble up and force the temperate jet streams poleward then you get what is happening now - jet streams moving equatorward. Imagine a pan of water with a single heat source in the middle seeing it welling up and outward.



The weather systems run along the jet streams in the 'Ferrel Cells' as the Hadley cell energy declines there is a tendency for the jet streams not only to move equatorward but also to become loopy - in what is called Rossby waves big meridonal loops. The energy in the jets reduces and they can be 'blocked' with blocking high pressure systems sometimes called omega highs due to the jet stream shape. When they block and stick in position some areas stay wet (UK last year) and others stay very dry (Texas and the mid-west USA last year).

It is this drop in energy in the tropics that the Russian astronomers are blaming on the Sun which is pushing out less shortwave radiation and more longwave - shortwave radiation warms the oceans longwave can actually cool them. The Sun is very quiet in its current Solar Cycle 24 and the possibility is that it could enter a 'minimum' with very few sun spots - as it did back in the beginning of the Little Ice Age in what was called the Maunder Minimum.

Possibly more than most of you wanted - but Google it - don't trust me

Look at Russian Academy Of Sciences Experts Warn Of Imminent Cold Period: ?Global Warming Is A Marketing Trick?
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