Jet A1 says he wouldn't be surprised if a deal was done in the next 18 months. I doubt it. Nothing will happen for over 5 years - ie nothing before the franchise deal expires and comes up for renwal and renegotiation.
If BALPA force Rod Eddington to put onerous or expensive rules regarding who can or cannot fly GB aircraft (when painted in BA colours) into the next franchise deal, then GB may have to sign up with some other big partner who is interested in doing business. Perhaps Easyjet might still be around by then, and would be interested in a partnerhip or franchise. It would be a financial blow to BA and a diaster for about 100 BA staff(check-in, ramp, line engineering) at LGW who depend on contracts from GB for work. I am sure that GB would rather retain a link with BA, as it has a continuous link that goes back to 1931. GB, for many years chartered BA aircraft and BA crews to fly some of its routes. Until a few years ago BA used to own half of GB, but BA decided to sell when it was pointed out that a franchisee can't be a franchiser at the same time!. GB is a business, not a club that is there to provide jobs for pilots, so the final decision will have to be well and truly positive from a financial angle. Hopefully BA Balpa members who are obviously thinking of themselves, will also think about the effect their Scope Clause will have on Balpa colleagues in GB, and their own colleagues in BA whose present jobs depend on GB being a successful business.
For those in BA, please remember that GB is a profitable business, that tries hard to live in a diificult commercial world. BA, while commendably profitable in the recent quarter figures, is struggling under debts of £6 billion and a pension fund shortfall of £1 billion in an equally, or possibly more difficult commercial world. If the two groups of pilots ever have to sit round a table to do a deal, please treat GB with some respect.