Ba now have a much larger % of the slots, they are not going to churn, unless something dramatic happens. The number of smaller, weaker airlines is going down as they are forced out
Not really if you think about it. BA took out a major player, the churn of the rest of the players is peripheral to BA / VS / BD / EI / AC etc etc. Look at airlines like Arik Air, Kingfisher (recently gone), South African (sold 1/3 of their slots to SQ), QANTAS (cut their operation by 50%).
Churned out : Kingfisher, China Airlines, BWIA, Air Jamaica
Churned in : TAM, China Airlines, Aeromexico, China Southern
Gatwick has been saying forever that they stand to profit from a full LHR and yet in recent years since 2008 they have
LOST Etihad, Qatar, Delta, Northwest, USAirways, American
Gained then
LOST : Air Nigeria, Virgin Nigeria, Hong Kong Express, OASIS, Mexicana, Korean Air
Gained : Vietnam Airlines, Air China, Carribbean Airlines (LHR exile)
Nothing has really changed and since Air China is upping capacity at LHR onto the B777-300ER lets see if LGW lasts the summer.
btw I would keep a close eye on Vueling, any tie up with BA at LGW would increase the IAG portfolio for BA and release slots for long haul.