It seems that all of you guys know what is going on. Everywhere I look there's a headline about pilot shortage, which leads a fresh pilot like me (PPL, 80h, currently on ATPL distance learning) to thinking that there is hope. There is that story about a lot of captains retiring in the years to come, along with the new FAA regulations worsening the situation, blah
I understand that some of you may discredit me because I am only a private pilot, for now, and not in the industry as we speak, but common sense tells me a couple of simple facts. I also know discussions like this one happen on pprune on a daily basis, but what the heck.
1. All economic booms happen after a crisis. After and IF the creators of this controlled economic mess called the recession decide that time has come to ease up a bit, there might be some hope for all of us wannabe airline pilots. So the only question is when will this happen. Maybe in a year, maybe in 5 or even 10.
2. In theory, when economies get in the expansion phase, people spend more, i.e. travel more because the media doesn't intimidate them with stories about the recession, the debt, the layouts etc. But, will airline industry ever get to the levels it was in the golden years (whichever these might be)? Someone mentioned the years ending with sixes... Never mind.
3. There will always be a shortage of competent and highly experienced pilots (captains, obviously), especially the ones that are willing to work for less money. This, I think, is the key moment here. Corporations, which are psychopathic in nature (no emotions), do not see beyond profit, and a high paying job like pilots' is no more than an unnecessary expense. To them, pilots are monkeys flyin' the damn plane. The fact that there's an army of desperate people who pay for their TR and line training, which is only adding insult to injury. This means slow but certain degradation of pilots line of work and getting these idiotic companies used to us bearing the cost. But again, desperate times call for desperate measures.
4. There is no point in having a shortage in labor force. That way the men and women have the power. The corporations know that very well, which is why we were all conditioned to believe that it is an absolute must to get a degree in something. In order to have power over workforce you must make them abundant, which is exactly the case with today's pilots.
THE POINT IS: There's more to this than we all think. As with everything in life, luck is an important factor, ant there is nothing we can do about it.
I think that a detailed analysis is beyond the scope of this post, and pretty uncalled for. Just as I write this, it makes me wonder if it's worth the money and effort. I started flying at 29 because, among other things, it was a life-long dream for me to fly an airliner, and it seemed like a nice way to make a decent living for my family (I'm a 30y old father of a 2-year old boy). I have a BSc in economics and business, but as all things today, it's pretty worthless. Listening to all of you guys does far more than discourage me to move on with my flight training. I was obviously deluded thinking there was hope to get a job.
I've just welcomed myself to the club. Cheers yall
