Hi,
The 0-40 flap cycle does not depend solely on temperature. It depends on how long the airplane sat there before engine start as well.
The probe heat can be turned on during the cockpit prep during cold weather ops, nothing will happen to them. You donīt turn them off when you are number 6 for takeoff on a 40°C day, no need to not turn them on during preflight cold wx.
Keep in mind that if you are going go thru a supplementary procedure and start deferring this, delaying that, not doing this, etc, you risk forgetting something important, while there is little to no benefit from the other exceptions or modifications to what the procedure says.
Donīt forget there is a difference between cold weather operation, and icing conditions. That is probably the one thing you need to keep in mind when deciding what items of a cold weather supp procedure you will consider unnecesary, such as the flap cycle, or early probe heat.
Hope it helps.
SW.