I am convinced it is going to happen before long. A Chinese airline will destroy a jetliner, crew, passengers, and cargo.
How will it happen?
- Poor crew training - too much rote memorization of little facts; not enough emphasis on aeronautical decision making and judgement. Too much emphasis on speed and show; not enough on depth of knowledge. When people are made into machines, bad things happen.
- A neanderthal scheduling system based solely on the needs of the airlines that disregards all knowledge of fatigue.
- Inflexible and mis-prioritised ATC. Chinese ATC is there to rigidly restrict traffic and enforce protection of military airspace. Controllers are completely unhelpful to pilots and promote unsafe flying. They insist on expedited taxi, climbs, descents, no wx deviations, flight at low / inefficient altitudes, and other nonsense that creates hazardous situations.
- Mismanaged airports / unsafe construction. Where else but in China can you find non-standard airport markings, closed and unmarked taxiways, wild marshaling / follow-me cars, and mysterious notams in Chinglish?
- A "Just Culture" in airlines and the CAAC? No, the culture is about control, punishment, and fixing of blame (not prevention). At best, they will whip everyone before implementing a solution. At worst, they will make silly rules and enforce new checks or tests that do nothing but satisfy political dogs high in the food chain.
Pilots, watch out and be careful there. When it happens, there will be collective hell to pay. Passengers, fly a foreign company and pray. Consider the "yellow light driving rule" as an insight to how these people function.
I ask for comments and debate to develop, refute, or validate what I say here.