The Next Chinese Hull Loss
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The Next Chinese Hull Loss
I am convinced it is going to happen before long. A Chinese airline will destroy a jetliner, crew, passengers, and cargo.
How will it happen?
Pilots, watch out and be careful there. When it happens, there will be collective hell to pay. Passengers, fly a foreign company and pray. Consider the "yellow light driving rule" as an insight to how these people function.
I ask for comments and debate to develop, refute, or validate what I say here.
How will it happen?
- Poor crew training - too much rote memorization of little facts; not enough emphasis on aeronautical decision making and judgement. Too much emphasis on speed and show; not enough on depth of knowledge. When people are made into machines, bad things happen.
- A neanderthal scheduling system based solely on the needs of the airlines that disregards all knowledge of fatigue.
- Inflexible and mis-prioritised ATC. Chinese ATC is there to rigidly restrict traffic and enforce protection of military airspace. Controllers are completely unhelpful to pilots and promote unsafe flying. They insist on expedited taxi, climbs, descents, no wx deviations, flight at low / inefficient altitudes, and other nonsense that creates hazardous situations.
- Mismanaged airports / unsafe construction. Where else but in China can you find non-standard airport markings, closed and unmarked taxiways, wild marshaling / follow-me cars, and mysterious notams in Chinglish?
- A "Just Culture" in airlines and the CAAC? No, the culture is about control, punishment, and fixing of blame (not prevention). At best, they will whip everyone before implementing a solution. At worst, they will make silly rules and enforce new checks or tests that do nothing but satisfy political dogs high in the food chain.
Pilots, watch out and be careful there. When it happens, there will be collective hell to pay. Passengers, fly a foreign company and pray. Consider the "yellow light driving rule" as an insight to how these people function.
I ask for comments and debate to develop, refute, or validate what I say here.
Last edited by Transformer_Man; 10th Jan 2013 at 20:30.
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Transformer-Man;
I could, and would like to, post the most horrific post about working in China that few have ever read. It has been written many times, only to be deleted by the moderators.
But aviation in China? I just worked there. Is it perfect? No. Is anywhere perfect? Same answer.
Their safety record in the last 10+ years is outstanding.
I used to say that I only recommend flying in China to pilots that have a guaranteed job to return to. I now view that as a mistake.
After all the pilot carnage I saw the last 2 years, I would not recommend any job in China to anyone. If I could go back in time, I wouldn't do it again.
The money was great, but not worth it.
I could, and would like to, post the most horrific post about working in China that few have ever read. It has been written many times, only to be deleted by the moderators.
But aviation in China? I just worked there. Is it perfect? No. Is anywhere perfect? Same answer.
Their safety record in the last 10+ years is outstanding.
I used to say that I only recommend flying in China to pilots that have a guaranteed job to return to. I now view that as a mistake.
After all the pilot carnage I saw the last 2 years, I would not recommend any job in China to anyone. If I could go back in time, I wouldn't do it again.
The money was great, but not worth it.
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You have a point about India. Pilots who have worked there say China is a step up. The Chinese are more rigorously trained and have more self discipline. Yes, but they also tend to make prefabricated responses to situations. When the threat is complex, the Chinese run out of answers.
Smoking holes result.
Then the authorities clean up the wreckage, bury it, and say nothing.
Smoking holes result.
Then the authorities clean up the wreckage, bury it, and say nothing.
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Most airlines in China don't allow their FO's to be PF when flying with a foreign captain. The expat will always be PF. (Mine was different).
Chinese ATC is not the best in the world, but it is far from the worst. Very far. New York ATC is worse.
Chinese ATC is not the best in the world, but it is far from the worst. Very far. New York ATC is worse.
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NY is worse? Why? Because they yell at you? Sure, they might be unprofessional at times, but calling them worse than the Chinese is bananas, yo!
Maybe we should see how well the Chinese controllers do at pushing tin through the northeast corridor with 3 of the nations busiest airport within 20 miles of each other. Just saying.
Maybe we should see how well the Chinese controllers do at pushing tin through the northeast corridor with 3 of the nations busiest airport within 20 miles of each other. Just saying.
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Alright you got me on that one. But Chinese ATC is far from the worst.
But I do hate New York ATC. And yes they have yelled at me, for their mistakes.
Wait a minute maybe they are Chinese after all? hahahaha
Here is a bad Chinese story. Do you know what you, the FO, and the jumpseater are all looking at when you taxi-in after a flight? Other traffic? Checklists? No.
You are all three staring at the Ground Speed readout on your NAV display. If you go over 15 it is a "soft" QAR. 18 costs you money. But the three IRS's are drifting 1-5 knots, in different directions. When you turn, depending on which way you are turning, they are individually drifting, one IRS might go up, one do down, the other who knows. If any of them hit 18 knots, it costs you money.
So every Chinese airplane is flying around with 3 pilots in cockpit, none looking outside the cockpit for fear of a QAR and fine. True story.
But I do hate New York ATC. And yes they have yelled at me, for their mistakes.
Wait a minute maybe they are Chinese after all? hahahaha
Here is a bad Chinese story. Do you know what you, the FO, and the jumpseater are all looking at when you taxi-in after a flight? Other traffic? Checklists? No.
You are all three staring at the Ground Speed readout on your NAV display. If you go over 15 it is a "soft" QAR. 18 costs you money. But the three IRS's are drifting 1-5 knots, in different directions. When you turn, depending on which way you are turning, they are individually drifting, one IRS might go up, one do down, the other who knows. If any of them hit 18 knots, it costs you money.
So every Chinese airplane is flying around with 3 pilots in cockpit, none looking outside the cockpit for fear of a QAR and fine. True story.
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Most of this thread implies that China's next fatal jetliner crash will be due to human factors. Is there room for plain old bad luck? Or natural phenomena?
No, wait...we're talking about China, where human factors is the ten ton gorilla dwarfing everything else. Maybe on takeoff, the crew will be too busy trying to avoid a QAR event that they'll miss the presence of a real threat. Maybe ATC will be pushing an inexperienced crew and they'll make a deadly mistake. Maybe the copilot will be so busy spewing extra callouts for normal things that he'll miss the non-normal that steers events toward a wreck.
Yep, forget about thunderstorms, icing, birds, and bad luck.
No, wait...we're talking about China, where human factors is the ten ton gorilla dwarfing everything else. Maybe on takeoff, the crew will be too busy trying to avoid a QAR event that they'll miss the presence of a real threat. Maybe ATC will be pushing an inexperienced crew and they'll make a deadly mistake. Maybe the copilot will be so busy spewing extra callouts for normal things that he'll miss the non-normal that steers events toward a wreck.
Yep, forget about thunderstorms, icing, birds, and bad luck.
''Chinese ATC is not the best in the world, but it is far from the worst. Very far. New York ATC is worse.''
At least in China, ATC use what is a close approximation to standard ICAO terminology. Anyone remember the audio clip of the Air China crew getting grief from the JFK ground controller because they couldn't understand him? The crew couldn't understand the "colloquial'' terminolgy.
I don't find ATC in China too bad. It's no the best, but the civillian controllers do a good job under the circumstances - which are usually a military controller standing over them overirding their decisions.
At least in China, ATC use what is a close approximation to standard ICAO terminology. Anyone remember the audio clip of the Air China crew getting grief from the JFK ground controller because they couldn't understand him? The crew couldn't understand the "colloquial'' terminolgy.
I don't find ATC in China too bad. It's no the best, but the civillian controllers do a good job under the circumstances - which are usually a military controller standing over them overirding their decisions.
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I wonder what Air India or Air China's crew would do when New York Approach says "Call the lady, follow the river". Then yells at them in upstate NY redneck for not knowing what the "lady" is.
Or maybe this one: "Do you have the Verazzano in sight?"
I never heard a Chinese controller ask me to identify a ground feature by its local slang term.
Or maybe this one: "Do you have the Verazzano in sight?"
I never heard a Chinese controller ask me to identify a ground feature by its local slang term.
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The OP rings true. Espescially this bit:
I have finally suceeded, after years of "We already have that" and after a bad fatal accident, in introducing international standard CRM training, which they most certainly didn't have - they had a facsimile of it. Still a lot of resistance.
Yes, there are very big problems with human factors in China.
- A "Just Culture" in airlines and the CAAC? No, the culture is about control, punishment, and fixing of blame (not prevention). At best, they will whip everyone before implementing a solution. At worst, they will make silly rules and enforce new checks or tests that do nothing but satisfy political dogs high in the food chain.
I have finally suceeded, after years of "We already have that" and after a bad fatal accident, in introducing international standard CRM training, which they most certainly didn't have - they had a facsimile of it. Still a lot of resistance.
Yes, there are very big problems with human factors in China.
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"The Chinese are more rigorously trained and have more self discipline. Yes, but they also tend to make prefabricated responses to situations. When the threat is complex, the Chinese run out of answers.
Smoking holes result.
Then the authorities clean up the wreckage, bury it, and say nothing."
Also very true; this is a function of a society where giving bad news to a superior is a Bad Plan.
Smoking holes result.
Then the authorities clean up the wreckage, bury it, and say nothing."
Also very true; this is a function of a society where giving bad news to a superior is a Bad Plan.
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It is not in the government controlled newspapers, but on February 25, a China Southern jet hit an NDB antenna during an approach to Wuhan, China. The plane was below MDA, in hard IMC, and tracking to the beacon perfectly. It flew between two masts and narrowly escaped clipping off a wing.
The crew got a GPWS alert, felt an impact, flew a missed approach, and diverted. Later inspection discovered damage due to impact with terrain / something affixed to the ground.
Whoop there it is. It was almost the hull loss this thread predicted. Sadly, one cannot say it is exclusively a Chinese problem. A good round of debate has shown this could have happened in a number of places with similar ways of doing aviation business.
The crew got a GPWS alert, felt an impact, flew a missed approach, and diverted. Later inspection discovered damage due to impact with terrain / something affixed to the ground.
Whoop there it is. It was almost the hull loss this thread predicted. Sadly, one cannot say it is exclusively a Chinese problem. A good round of debate has shown this could have happened in a number of places with similar ways of doing aviation business.
Last edited by Transformer_Man; 3rd Mar 2013 at 03:18.
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More details on the incident quoted from Plane Talking:
A China Southern Boeing 737-800, registration B-5192 performing flight CZ-3367 from Guangzhou to Wuhan (China), was on a NDB/DME approach (minimum 1200 meters visibily required, MDA 430 feet) to Wuhan’s runway 04 in visibility of 1500 meters occasionally reduced to 1200 meters in light rain and light fog and cloud ceiling 690 feet. The aircraft had been configured for landing before reaching the final approach fix and was maintaining 1800 feet when the aircraft reached the final approach fix at the outer marker 5.1nm before the runway threshold. The aircraft descended with the captain being pilot flying, when descending through 1000 feet the captain disengaged the autopilot. When the aircraft reached 430 feet there was no visual contact with the runway, the first officer called for level flight, reset the flight director and selected the go-around altitude into the master control panel. Still no approach lights were seen, the aircraft appeared low. A ground proximity warning “too low” activated, the first officer called for a go-around without response from the captain, another GPWS “too low” sounded, this time the captain called “go-around” and initiated the go-around, unusual sounds however occurred while the aircraft was still rotating up and it became obvious the aircraft had hit obstacles, but the aircraft climbed out to safety. The crew subsequently decided to divert to Hefei for a landing without further incident.
The event became known through rumours that surfaced on China’s Weibo service (similiar to Twitter) in February and got confirmed by a preliminary report by China’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAC) on Mar 5th 2013.
The CAAC reported that the aircraft sustained damage (penetrations and dents) to the left main gear door and left main gear gear proximity cover actuator, the left main gear outboard tyre received cuts. The antennas of the southern NDB “D” and inner marker were damaged, two other antenna pillars were damaged as well. The CAAC annotated that the approach was continued below MDA without necesssary visual reference putting the aircraft below the approach profile, in addition the crew did not initiate the go-around after the first ground proximity alert.
The event became known through rumours that surfaced on China’s Weibo service (similiar to Twitter) in February and got confirmed by a preliminary report by China’s Civil Aviation Authority (CAAC) on Mar 5th 2013.
The CAAC reported that the aircraft sustained damage (penetrations and dents) to the left main gear door and left main gear gear proximity cover actuator, the left main gear outboard tyre received cuts. The antennas of the southern NDB “D” and inner marker were damaged, two other antenna pillars were damaged as well. The CAAC annotated that the approach was continued below MDA without necesssary visual reference putting the aircraft below the approach profile, in addition the crew did not initiate the go-around after the first ground proximity alert.
