12 aircraft is a bit of a small fleet to have multiple configurations within it, and would lead to some operating inefficiencies, which for the sort of capital investment each A380 represents is not something you want. There is a bit of an art in having this and then adapting your revenue management to maximise the take on each route served - an art that BA are doubtless well aware of.
Regarding what is now one of the largest remaining 747 fleets around, most of which are from the 1990s, there are a number of new long-haul designs coming along currently, and for such a big purchase that will be needed BA will doubtless have in mind to have the newer types and not one about to go out of production. There's a whole department, Fleet Planning, that manages this, and they crunch the numbers every day on optimising things. I'm sure that over at IAG the lesson of Iberia stocking up on a big multi-billion purchase of A340-600s which promptly lost much of their value and went out of production is well up in their minds.
When I suggested that they should operate the A380s in several different seating plans, I felt it should only be done when they have ordered more A380s
As for the replacement of the 747-400s, it also depends on how much space there would be at LHR, for BA there are 3 options if they want planes that are not likely to be out of production, they are:
777-9X
A350-1000
A380-800
I doubt the 777-9X would be chosen by BA, because they are not only due to start deliveries in the Mid-2020, by then all the 747s would have been withdrawn and anyway BA would then have to wait before EK gets their planes delivered
That leaves the A350-1000 and A380-800, now which plane would get what proportion of a furture 747-400 replacement order would depend on how much capacity would there be at LHR, I would suggest that BA would in the long run end up operating the second biggest operator of the A380 (25-30) and one of the biggest A350-1000 operators
In relation to this, when are the leases on all but 2 777-300ERs are due to expire, after all they are a "stop-gap" in the fleet and if they sold on, I suggest they would be replaced by A350-1000s
As for 777-200ERs, which are only slightly younger, they would come next in terms of replacement, if BA orders the A350-1000, then I suggest that the best option for them would be the A350-900
In other words, here is what a future BA fleet would look like:
Embraer E-170
Embraer E-190
Airbus A318
Airbus A319neo
Airbud A320neo
Airbus A321neo
Boeing 787-8
Boeing 787-9
Airbus A350-900
Airbus A350-1000
Airbus A380-800
As a regular traveller to China I would answer as follows:
If BA launched new routes to China and Taiwan from LHR, would any of these destinations be viable?
Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport - Already discussed seems it is possible
Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport - Even though it is only a couple of hours from Hong Kong it is the heart of an economically strong province so would make sense yes.
Hangzhou Xiaoshan International Airport - No cant imagine a major demand
Nanjing Lukou International Airport - No less than an hours flying from Shanghai not a big airport would I imagine dilute Shanghai
Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport - Used to have Taipei, however would imagine the significant political problems it creates means no for now.
Wuhan Tianhe International Airport - Maybe some way off in the future not now.
Xiamen Gaoqi International Airport - As with Hangzhou doubt there is the demand
Xi'an Xianyang International Airport - As above.
Firstly thanks for the information you have given me!
Also it is not the case that the poltical problems between PRC-ROC have been fixed in relation to avation, for example the rule in realtion to creating a wholly owned seperate airline (to serve the ROC) have largely be relaxed and airlines from both nations now sevrve the other country