With rules changing for someone with a ME/IR class rating or similar, a renewal will become very expensive if they have to go to a ATO, do a minimum number of sessions as per the new rules for the time lapsed or more at the discretion of the ATO. Many people will walk away or slowly drop out of currency. Especially those in large debts from initial training.
What could happen is less people take up aviation training in the future, examiners have less work for initials, renewals and it may not help their income if they cannot float around examining outside of ATO's, like before.
Maybe in a few years, their could be a pilot shortage and of examiners, if examiner work reduces. Then the rules may change. Or perhaps these rules might be challenged by the expat pilot organisations that are flying abroad and have lost their IR but have an IR on another license. Those who worked for airlines that went bust and were hit by the recessions, could also be affected if their IR was renewed on types they use to fly and no longer have IR class ratings.
The FAA route is becoming more popular and some people have gone off and gained FAA licenses to get more work as its cheaper, more practical. Also some companies like UPS operate N reg in Europe to some extent or another. It would be an interesting period of time ....
Last edited by turbine100; 19th Nov 2012 at 16:48.