I have no doubt that once the word gets out that families could save £400, £500 or £600 by travelling long haul from Edinburgh then they will vote with the wallet and travel up the road. We already have an example of this in Belfast where long haul traffic collapsed as folks travelled from Dublin to save the APD and I can assure you it is a lot easier to get from Newcastle to Edinburgh than from Belfast to Dublin.
Could you tell me what Long Haul routes Belfast lost to DUB. APD only pushed United service into losses as it was already a very marginal route and it will always be like that. Belfast lost a few long haul Holiday flights of which none were operated from Dublin apart from MCO which was always popular with people from NI even though they had there own charters. The problem is the economy and people can't afford to go on long haul holidays and APD added to the losses.