mickyman:
Do you have comparisons with all Emirates stations in the UK that you could share ?
Perhaps a graph showing the numbers on all flights in the UK
from the various airports for the last 17or12 month period? followed by the available seats per station?
I only use open sources for this Dubai - UK comparison. It may be possible to find the individuals that have flown the routes, but I don't have access to what each individual has of seat numbers. To know the load factor for the flight on the route don't tell anything about the yield or RASK. Load factor, yield and RASK is the carriers business secret - and I think we have to let it stay so.
Then we are left with only passenger numbers given in the monthly traffic reports from CAA. Of the six UK airports with scheduled flights to Dubai, five of them have only one operator, Emirates. The sixth airport, Heathrow, has five operators on the route, but only four of them do sell tickets: British Airways, Emirates, Royal Brunei Airlines and Virgin Atlantic Airways.
Below you will find a graph showing the market share of the six airport based on rolling year numbers. Since there is such a large difference between Heathrow and the rest, I've removed most of the area between 20% and 40% so that you get a better view of the five others. The red curve that is different than all the rest is showing us the year rolling passenger numbers between Dubai and UK, and the axis to the right gives the units.
Much can be said about these curves, but let's start with the changes in the passenger numbers (red curve). It is easy to spot that something happened at the start of S12 (end of March 2012). What was a steady growth stopped, and the mangnitude of the drop the next two months in passenger numbers was equal to the Icelandic ash drop in April 2010. At the end of September there is still 7,348 passengers missing to get to the March level of 4,143,599 passengers per year. Since the first three months of 2012 and the three last in 2011 was so good, the 12 months growth was still +2.5%.
Now let's start up North with the airports:
Glasgow is enjoying an all time high both for market share and passenger numbers. 295,833 passengers flew between DXB and GLA the last 12 months (+8.6%) and that was 7.2% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year GLA has got 20,817 new passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then GLA grew 19.0% (qual to 14,199 passengers).
Newcastle had its passenger all time high in July last summer and the top market share came in March the same year. 161,082 passengers flew between DXB and NCL the last 12 months (+1.9%) and that was 3.9% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year NCL has lost 2,089 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then NCL grew 1.1% (qual to 479 passengers).
Manchester has seen the last hslf year two months with decline in passenger number, and both market share and year rolling passenger numbers peaked in April this year. 669,316 passengers (1,018 passengers lower than the peak) flew between DXB and MAN the last 12 months (+7.2%) and that was 16.2% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year MAN has got 31,450 new passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then MAN grew 2.6% (qual to 4,672 passengers).
Birmingham has seen a steady decline in passenger numbers and market share since they peaked in April 2011. 474,597 passengers (37,209 passengers lower than the peak) flew between DXB and BHX the last 12 months (-6.2%) and that was 11.5% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year BHX has lost 25,375 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then BHX declined 7.9% (qual to -10,368 passengers).
Heathrow is enjoying all time high for both for year rolling passenger numbers and market share this September. 1,920,569 passengers flew between DXB and LHR the last 12 months (+3.2%) and that was 46.4% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year LHR has gained 31,076 more passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then LHR grew 2.5% (qual to 12,643 passengers).
Gatwick is experiencing a more an less steady decline in market share since June 2010, but with that small decline Gatwick continued to grow in passenger number until the same time as the total UK numbers peaked in March. 614,853 passengers flew between DXB and LGW the last 12 months (+1.2%) and that was 14.9% of the passengers between Dubai and UK. Since new year LGW has lost 2,247 passengers. If we compare the 3rd quarter this year with the 3rd quarter in 2011 then LGW declined 6.5% (qual to -11,374 passengers).
My conclusions is as follows:
- LHR and GLA are both experiencing all time highs at the end of September
- MAN had the biggest growth in passenger numbers the nine first months this year
- GLA had the biggest percentage growth the last 12 months as well as the biggest passenger growth in both percentage and passenger numbers in the 3rd quarter
- No doubt, Birmingham was the big looser with largest decline in passenger this year, largest decline the last 12 months and largest percentage decline in 3rd quarter.
- Gatwick had the largest decline in passenger numbers 3rd quarter
The graph above spans almost two years and during this time we can clearly see MAN overtaking LGW to take over the second place. The last months results shows that this second spot to MAN is more and more secure.
If you follows @routesnews, two days ago three tweets appeared with links to the above and they said:
Routes News 18.10.2012 11:07
Early days of Manchester-Dubai were 'verry tough' but set a new trend in long haul says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Routes News 18.10.2012 11:12
Glasgow-Dubai was Emirates fastest growing route. Scots hate connecting through London says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Routes News 18.10.2012 11:19
APD is hitting sales in the UK regions and people drive from NI to Dublin to escape it says Laurie Berryman VP UK Emirates at #investandmanage
Looks like Emirates and I say the same about Glasgow. With the regards to the last tweet; What does the APD do to MAN? In the 3rd quarter there are two very large European hub airports that showed a significant growth (+10.5% and +16.2%) and both airports are served of other airlines than the residing hub airline.
The last six months I've been three times to AMS and all the times I've seen British citizens with easyJet tags on their bags queuing up at KLM check ins. Is this the new way to minimize the size of the APD? Buying separate tickets with easyJet to AMS (2x£13) and continue flying APD free to the rest of the world?