Stop trolling and read the book 'Black Swan' by Nassim Taleb. The author shows how it's the unexpected that catches you out. This chap came to fame because he predicted the financial crash. His analysis was based on the fundamentals of what he saw happening in the markets.
Ive read it thanks. By the sounds of it you've only read the wiki. He didn't predict it, he bet against the market in a controlled way. He clearly states in the book no one can predict! It's luck, preparation and robustness that count - sensible risk taking. Like 98% of your capital in low return, very low risk investments and 2 % in high risk, big return options. He absolutely did not base his actions on what he saw happening in the markets - he based it upon human nature, his in depth understanding of randomness and luck! I suggest you read it again. It's a great book. Inspiring.
From a synopsis on the book:
The main idea in Taleb's book is not to attempt to predict black swan events, but to build robustness against negative ones that occur and be able to exploit positive ones.
I wasn't predicting anything - I was giving an opinion and showing how things have changed.