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Old 29th Jul 2012, 15:13
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Iver
 
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We talk about big maintenance issues on the 800 fleet looming and bases opening and then closing based on local conditions/airport charges, but I am predicting a huge order for the Chinese C919 in the near future because neither Boeing nor Airbus will take O'Leary seriously. The maintenance issue with the 800s is a big deal and O'Leary will need to address it - especially as aggressive LCCs like Norwegian upgrades/refreshes its fleet in the coming years. Boeing already know that O'Leary will use Airbus to negotiate lower prices at Boeing - but Airbus refuses to be a "pawn" in this chess game. Meanwhile, the Chinese will offer the aircraft dirt cheap to get a foot-hold in the European market. The article below is a bit dated but I think it still holds true - as long as the aircraft is "legal" and passes its various regulatory checks, I'd say there is a good chance that you Ryanair boys will need to learn some Chinese and how to use the sidestick:

Article: Ryanair Considering 200-Plus Orders for China




Market entry is a bit off at 2016 but O'Leary has mentioned he "could" order 200 and get options for 200 more at some point...

Time will tell if Boeing or Airbus evetnually cave to this blatant negotiating tactic... Personally, I am a fan of the new Bombardier C-Series and I read the CS300 could be fitted with as many as 150 seats for LCCs (in a recent Bombardier offer for Air Asia). Certainly not the seat number you currently use at Ryanair but it is apparently very efficient vs. the regular 800 (cost savings vs. revenue up-side with more seats decision).

Big looming question: how would Ryanair handle training if the C919 were selected to replace the Boeing? I am betting the Chinese would throw in training for free (certain number of piltos per airframe) for existing FR pilots because O'Leary wouldn't pay for it. Typical PFT pilots (like those today on the Boeing) would be added in the future. Not sure the C919 type would be that useful/marketable outside of China in the future! Again, time will tell in terms of how Ryanair handles the fleet replacement/looming maintenance issue...

Last edited by Iver; 29th Jul 2012 at 15:28.
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