Tailscrape and Pilot Pete, I agree with you when you say you have to go for the CTC Scheme to have a shot at these airlines, and you can't get a place if you don't try. However, I think the question Foghorn was raising initially was what is the percentage who are successful up to taking the ATP course, and then don't end up seeing the benefits. Everyone can see the benefits that some such as yourself have gained from the scheme, but as sensible people we are also interested in the risks. I understand that when you went through the scheme there was no cost to the successful cadets, therefore obviously no real risk. Now they are looking for an investment of 6K which is good value for money if you get a job out of it, but perhaps better invested elsewhere if nothing will come of it.
The impression I'm getting is that the odds are pretty good if you make it through the first three phases of selection and therefore worth the investment. It would be more reassuring to have actual facts to back this up though. Another factor to consider is the likely wait to gain an interview after the AQC. In my personal circumstances it may not be worth the investment if the wait is much over six months for instance.
It would be interesting to hear from someone who is closely connected with the current scheme (ie hold pool or employed in the last few months) to get a clearer impression of the current state of the scheme.