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Old 13th May 2012, 17:59
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pilotday
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Miami
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don't trust the forecasts

I understand the met office in UAE is run by locals...nuff said

They do an okay job, but don't let EK bully you into taking minimum average fuel "strat fuel" just because the forecast doesn't call for fog when it is humid.

Any dew point over 25 should warrant an extra ton or two of fuel for that nice fuzzy feeling. That's airmenship, a long forgotten term clouded by FCI's and OMA's

A meteorologist is the only profession that can keep their job when being wrong 90% of the time.

May I be brave enough to say that EK did the math and decided that it is cheaper to have one diversion every 20+ flights vs. having 20+ flights carry extra fuel. That is kind of like when Ford motor company calculated the Ford Pinto death trap cost $11/car to fix costing $137 million vs. paying $49 million 'calculating' 180 deaths in lawsuits. (http://www.justice.org/clips/theyknewandfailedto.pdf) page 24

^^I know, I know, not the same thing, but imagine if costumers knew that EK is pressuring pilots to thin the margin of safety with fear tactics. Hell"whOa" Tomorrow.

Just wait for that Black Swan event where un-forecast fog closes all the airports in UAE and have 15 EK aircraft declaring maydays with 5 tons of fuel at the same time. Entirely possible...
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