Fog for Dubai Sunday morning?
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Fog for Dubai Sunday morning?
Just walked the dog before bed.....a very damp 4kt breeze blowing in from the sea. 96% humidity, temp 29degs at 2100.
Not a met man, but I reckon a fairly good bet for fog and morning chaos.
So why does the TAF for Dubai forecast 3000m in haze? Surely if the met geeks walked outside they'd have a pretty good idea that conditions are ripe for fog?
So, as we see almost every time fog springs up, aircraft arrive back here with insufficient fuel because the forecast doesn't mention it, but of course for the next two nights the boffins predict fog, which invariably doesn't happen.
(now of course I hang my man-parts out for ridicule if the fog doesn't turn up
..let me just poke my head outside once more before hitting send....)
..yip, worse than 10mins ago. You heard it here first folks.
Not a met man, but I reckon a fairly good bet for fog and morning chaos.
So why does the TAF for Dubai forecast 3000m in haze? Surely if the met geeks walked outside they'd have a pretty good idea that conditions are ripe for fog?
So, as we see almost every time fog springs up, aircraft arrive back here with insufficient fuel because the forecast doesn't mention it, but of course for the next two nights the boffins predict fog, which invariably doesn't happen.
(now of course I hang my man-parts out for ridicule if the fog doesn't turn up
..let me just poke my head outside once more before hitting send....)..yip, worse than 10mins ago. You heard it here first folks.
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mmm....didn't happen despite my best met predicting skills.
Perhaps I should stick to doing what I know best. Beer drinking.
We shall allow this thread to die a natural death.
Perhaps I should stick to doing what I know best. Beer drinking.
We shall allow this thread to die a natural death.
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Never mind, Kamelchaser, given a few weeks of stats am sure that you will show a better hit rate than the 'pros' currently forecasting the DXB TAF.....!!
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don't trust the forecasts
I understand the met office in UAE is run by locals...nuff said
They do an okay job, but don't let EK bully you into taking minimum average fuel "strat fuel" just because the forecast doesn't call for fog when it is humid.
Any dew point over 25 should warrant an extra ton or two of fuel for that nice fuzzy feeling. That's airmenship, a long forgotten term clouded by FCI's and OMA's
A meteorologist is the only profession that can keep their job when being wrong 90% of the time.
May I be brave enough to say that EK did the math and decided that it is cheaper to have one diversion every 20+ flights vs. having 20+ flights carry extra fuel. That is kind of like when Ford motor company calculated the Ford Pinto death trap cost $11/car to fix costing $137 million vs. paying $49 million 'calculating' 180 deaths in lawsuits. (http://www.justice.org/clips/theyknewandfailedto.pdf) page 24
^^I know, I know, not the same thing, but imagine if costumers knew that EK is pressuring pilots to thin the margin of safety with fear tactics. Hell"whOa" Tomorrow.
Just wait for that Black Swan event where un-forecast fog closes all the airports in UAE and have 15 EK aircraft declaring maydays with 5 tons of fuel at the same time. Entirely possible...
They do an okay job, but don't let EK bully you into taking minimum average fuel "strat fuel" just because the forecast doesn't call for fog when it is humid.
Any dew point over 25 should warrant an extra ton or two of fuel for that nice fuzzy feeling. That's airmenship, a long forgotten term clouded by FCI's and OMA's
A meteorologist is the only profession that can keep their job when being wrong 90% of the time.
May I be brave enough to say that EK did the math and decided that it is cheaper to have one diversion every 20+ flights vs. having 20+ flights carry extra fuel. That is kind of like when Ford motor company calculated the Ford Pinto death trap cost $11/car to fix costing $137 million vs. paying $49 million 'calculating' 180 deaths in lawsuits. (http://www.justice.org/clips/theyknewandfailedto.pdf) page 24
^^I know, I know, not the same thing, but imagine if costumers knew that EK is pressuring pilots to thin the margin of safety with fear tactics. Hell"whOa" Tomorrow.
Just wait for that Black Swan event where un-forecast fog closes all the airports in UAE and have 15 EK aircraft declaring maydays with 5 tons of fuel at the same time. Entirely possible...
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The Met office in DXB is very good at predicting yesterdays weather. Avoid the first day of fog, and you'll be fine. And when they do forecast fog, take the first hour in "Becoming" and subtract it by 5 hours, and remember, what happens in DXB happens in AUH.
MCT is your friend, but can fill up rather fast.
MCT is your friend, but can fill up rather fast.
