Outside the utility (Caravan) segment, there is precisely one new aircraft between the $1m Baron and the >$3m TBM and Mustang - the Piper Meridian. It's hardly an overcrowded market.
Not being overcrowded doesn't mean there is a huge pent up demand.
A new Jetprop is $1.5M, so add that one. It's better in most respects than the Meridian, too.
And anybody who wants one can have one.
Also, what are the current Baron sales? According to
this they sold 30 last year.
I would not doubt that Cirrus could outsell the TBM (38) but I don't see a market for hundreds. Where would the money be coming from?
You also can't just jump into a jet like you can jump into a Ferrari. The journey to the whole PPL/IR with a type rating is very nontrivial. (ATPL exams in Europe). I recall talking to some people close to the now dead Javelin jet and their view was that they realised too late that most of the people with the money would not have time to collect the paperwork to fly it.
That's why nearly all bizjets are flown by a crew and not the owner and this includes nearly all of the SP certified ones. The principal bet Cirrus will be making is not that they can bring a SE jet to the market at the $2M+ area but that they can somehow create a whole new bunch of private pilots who are going to commit to the paperwork collection journey.
I think most of "the market" is already flying a turboprop, and you can count them
I am not sure this is the best way to fill it, but if it is the ONLY aicraft filling it, it is very likely to sell well.
I don't think that follows, because the gap doesn't exist once you look at used aircraft.
Anybody who can buy a $1M Baron could stretch a little and buy a good used TBM700 which will outclass a Baron in every department except not having two engines (and the value of two piston engines compared to one PT6 is dubious).
A $2M Cirrus jet will be competing with a lot of good turboprop hardware.